Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman is leading Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) by 57 points among Republican voters likely to vote in the Wyoming GOP primary, Brian Harnisch, the director of the University of Wyoming’s Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center (WYSAC) stated on Thursday.
“When looking only at residents who say they are Republican and likely voters in the primary, we actually see Hageman leading by roughly 50 points,” the Wyoming pollster said about the August 16 primary race.
Harnisch’s poll found that Hageman has maintained her lead over Cheney by about 29 points when voters of all affiliations are in the mix. The poll sampled 562 likely Wyoming voters from all political affiliations from July 25-August 6 and has a four point margin of error.
“Given the unique attention this race is receiving, and the accompanying increases in voter registration and potential party switching, we decided to field this survey to a random sample of all Wyoming residents on cell phones and landlines and work to identify likely voters in the GOP primary,” Harnisch said.
Hageman’s lead seems to be a referendum on Cheney rather than outright support of Hageman. Cheney has allied herself with the January 6 Committee she sits on, which has sought to investigate the January 6 incident without focusing on the alleged FBI informants at the Capitol.
“The race for the Republican nomination appears to be a referendum on Cheney, as it usually is when an incumbent seeks re-election,” Jim King, professor of political science at the university, stated.
“This race is more about Liz Cheney than it is about Donald Trump,” Brad Coker, managing director of the polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, stated about his polling data.
“The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” Coker added. “That’s a foregone conclusion.”
Cheney has received a large amount of money and support from outside the state — establishment donors looking to save her from defeat. The incumbent has outraised Hageman by nearly three to one. Yet Hageman has done very well with Wyoming voters, who have donated more than $1.2 million — more than four times as much as Wyoming voters have donated to Cheney, FEC data shows.
Hageman told Breitbart News that Cheney’s alliance with the establishment uniparty has politically damaged her. “Liz Cheney has lost Wyoming. Liz Cheney doesn’t live in Wyoming. She doesn’t represent us,” Hageman said. “She doesn’t represent our values.”