In 2011 there will be a continued national debate on US Immigration policy. Should we change the 14th Amendment allowing everyone being born in the United States to become a citizen, even if the parents are illegally here or even just tourists? Should children of illegal aliens born overseas become US citizens if they have resided here for years? Should we give amnesty to the several million illegal aliens in the US? To understand the consequences of these issues, let us look at possible US population projects in the year 2100.
Will a growing population stimulate an immigration policy change?
The US Census Dept just announced the US population mid-2010 was over 308 million. In 1900 US population was 76 million and in 1950 it was 152 million. Now let us put this figure in perspective.
In 1987 the US Census projected the US population in 2050 would be 300 million. We reached that number a few years ago. Why? The US birthrate has fallen, but the immigration, legal and illegal, numbers have increased and we have an increased longevity.
Today the US Census 2050 projection is 420 million for the US population, an increase of 120 million over the 1987 projection. Population projections are not a science; they are estimates, changing estimates.
Since the 1987 projection for 2050 was a considerable under estimate, let us presuppose the 2050 population could reach 500 million. Google “US Census 2050.” The current 2050 US projection is 420 million. The projected break down is as follows: Whites in 2010 245 million growing to 302 million in 2050; Hispanics 2010 48 million growing in 2050 to 103 million from 15.4 % to 24.4 % of the population; Blacks 40 million in 2010 growing to 61 million in 2050, and Asians in 2010 14 million growing to 33 million in 2050.
If the growth rate from 2050 to 2100 would be 1.5%, according to the rule of 7 that would mean in 2100 the US population would be about 1 billion. I say again One Billion. Google “US Census 2100 Population” and you find the projected ranges. The highest projection is 1.182 billion and the lowest is 283 million. The American Planning Association in 2008 at their annual meeting discussed a US population over 1 billion in 2100 or 2120. Today the US is the third largest population with China having 1.3 billion and India 1.1 billion. Those nations have populations of 1 billion. In a century can the US have a 1 billion population?
The major debate in the US on what is a reasonable immigration policy. In late December the “Dream Act” (Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors) was not passed into law. It would have given US citizenship to children of illegal aliens who came to the US as minors. According to the US Congressional Research office it would have cost $5 billion.
The other issue is the 14th Amendment which allows all children born in the US full US citizenship, even if their parents are illegally in the US. Many other nations had such laws, but the trend has been to cancel such a privilege to citizenship.
As the world population grows to several billion, peak estimates range from 9 to 12 billion, there will be increased pressures to restrict immigration once the future US population numbers are graphically self-evident. The paradox is that certain segments of national populations, such as Europe are growing rapidly, especially the Moslem population; whereas, the native French, Spanish, Italian, German, etc. populations have a markedly declining birth rate.
On the other hand the population longevity in many nations is increasing. So in some nations there will be an increasing elderly population with a decreasing younger economically productive population. In China segments of the population have been limited to one child per family for years and that creates a large elderly population with a small younger population.
The US Census Department has substantial on line current, past, and future population statistics. The 2010 data is quite interesting. The US Census Department phone number is 1 866 758 1060 if you have specific questions.
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