Poll: Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff

A survey of likely Republican runoff voters in Texas shows a narrow margin between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn, with a small share of voters still undecided as the May contest approaches.

The poll was conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs from April 28 through May 1 among 1,200 likely voters via text message and an online survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percent.

According to the findings, Paxton receives 48 percent support compared to Cornyn’s 45 percent, while 7 percent of respondents remain undecided. The three-point gap places Paxton slightly ahead within the survey’s margin.

The poll also measured candidate favorability. Among likely voters, 50 percent view Paxton favorably and 43 percent unfavorably, with 7 percent indicating they do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Cornyn’s ratings show 47 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, with 4 percent unsure.

When respondents were asked which candidate would be the stronger Republican nominee against Democrat candidate James Talarico in the November 2026 general election, the electorate was evenly split. Forty-three percent selected Cornyn, while an equal 43 percent chose Paxton. Another 14 percent said neither candidate held an advantage.

The latest survey adds to a series of recent polls in the Texas Senate runoff contest. A March poll by Quantus Insights showed Paxton leading Cornyn 48.8 percent to 41.3 percent, with 9.9 percent undecided, and described the electorate as largely settled and highly certain to vote. Another earlier survey conducted for Talarico’s campaign found Paxton ahead by a wider margin, 53 percent to 37 percent, and indicated stronger favorability ratings for Paxton among likely Republican voters.

The runoff follows the March 3 Republican primary, in which Cornyn received 41.9 percent of the vote, Paxton 40.7 percent, and Rep. Wesley Hunt 13.5 percent, eliminating Hunt from the race. The winner of the May 26 runoff will face Talarico in the general election.

This polling comes as Paxton released an advertisement over the weekend targeting Cornyn’s past positions on immigration and border security, including a 2013 remark in which Cornyn said, “The American people are compassionate people… I think they would find a way to deal with the 12 million people or so or less, now perhaps, who are here but not necessarily a path to citizenship,” as well as a 2018 statement that “a new, giant wall between the United States and Mexico from sea to shining sea makes no sense whatsoever.” The ad concludes with narration stating, “Cornyn: good for illegals, bad for Texans.”