CNN Poll: Rubio Surges, Trump Stalls in New Hampshire

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas speaks during the Values Voter Su
AP, Reuters

A new CNN poll shows Donald Trump’s lead in New Hampshire over his rivals closing to 11 points.

Trump leads the field with 29 percent, but Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has increased his support to 18 percent, says the small poll. The 362-person poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa caucus.

A prior CNN poll of New Hampshire Republicans released immediately before the Iowa caucus showed Trump leading with 30 percent support, followed by Ted Cruz with 12 percent.

Since the Iowa vote, Trump has dropped a point, while Rubio has risen 7 points. Ted Cruz has moved up one point in the last few days.

Trump’s one-point movement is obviously well within the polls’ margin of error, but Rubio’s rising support is cleary a phenomenon. Trump’s decline in support has been evident since the middle of January, when he peaked in the CNN poll at 34 percent. Since that poll, Trump has lost 5 points, Rubio has gained 8, and Cruz has dropped one point.

In the days following the Iowa caucus, Trump has trained his fire on Cruz, who has also been criticized by Republicans like Karl Rove and Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad. In addition to Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich have also seen upticks in their support. Kasich has the support of 13 percent of likely voters, while Bush has 10 percent support.

Only 41 percent of likely primary voters say they have definitely made up their minds on whom to support. In both 2012 and 2008, around 20 percent of voters decided their vote on election day. In 2008, 40 percent of New Hampshire voters decided immediately following the Iowa caucus.

One ominous sign for Trump is that the number of likely primary voters who say they could not support him as the nominee has risen to 37 percent, six points higher than before the Iowa caucus.

The New Hampshire primary is just days away, but in Presidential politics, that can be an eternity.


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