Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Trump Gains, Now Tied with Clinton 44-44

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks at a voter registration rally October 4, 2016 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)

Republican nominee for president Donald J. Trump has caught up with his Democratic rival Hillary R. Clinton, with both garnering 44 percent of the electorate, according to the national Breitbart/Gravis poll conducted Oct. 4 with 1,690 registered voters.

“Trump picked up four points from our Sept. 20 poll that had Clinton with 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent and four points from our Sept. 7 and Sept. 8 poll that had Clinton with 43 percent and, again, Trump at 40 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing director of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 2.4 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“We are one month out from election and although there are two other candidates in the national mix, we are seeing the power of the binary choice force shy Trump supporters to come out of hiding,” Kaplan said.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was the choice of five percent and Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein was the choice of one percent.

Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell told Breitbart News: “This poll once again shows that when this race is contested ad hominen, or candidate versus candidate, Trump has trouble with Clinton–their unfavorables are both very high–but, if Trump was to line up with the attitudes revealed in this poll, he could have a landslide win.”

Caddell said,”If Trump could deal with her more strongly on her as a representative of the overall corruption of Washington and Washington’s contempt for the American people–all of the numbers show that, when you take it to that higher ground, where both Democrats and Republicans are frustrated and angry.”

One example is the question asking the respondent if the candidate would fight for people like him.

For Clinton, 41 percent agreed and 49 percent disagreed and for Trump 41 percent said Trump would fight for people like them, 49 percent said he would not, said Caddell, who was the pollster. Caddell advised three successive Democratic nominees in 1972, 1976, and 1980, as well as in 1984, when his candidate Gary Hart came in a close second in the roll call.

In the approval ratings, 32 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of the former first lady and 47 percent said they had a very unfavorable opinion of her, he said.

“This pairs up with Trump’s 27 percent very favorable and 47 percent very unfavorable,” he said.

But, when they asked: “Hillary Clinton’s supporters at the Refugee Council want to increase the number of refugees coming into the United States in 2017 even more, to 200,000, and  Hillary wants to increase the number of Syrian refugees in that total from 10,000 in 2016 to 65,000 in 2017. Do you approve or disapprove of this increase?” — sixty-two percent were opposed and only 26 percent supported Clinton’s position, he said.

Respondents were asked: “The United States will relinquish its administrative control over the Internet to a private organization where other countries, which could include China, Russia and Iran, will have influence for the first time on the management of the Internet.  Do you think this is a good idea or not?”

Caddell said 71 percent said it was a bad idea and only seven percent said it was a good idea.

“The next question they were asked was if the handover of the Internet was a sign of America’s weakened leadership in the world,”Caddell said. “It was a little closer, 51 percent: yes and 36 percent: no, but still that is 15 points.”

On President Barack Obama’s Iran Deal, 42 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove, he said. “But, when they are asked if the Iranians are cheating now or will cheat in the future, 60 percent say yes and 14 percent say no,” he said.

“The same dynamic is in play with the president in the question. The respondents line up Democrat versus Republican, but take him out of it and their true feelings come out,” he said.

“On the the question of whether the Iranians were cheating, it is basically 5-to-1,” he said.

“This is what I mean when I talk about higher ground or the higher level,” said the Fox News Insider.

“The Clinton campaign can win a referendum on Trump; they cannot win a referendum on refugees, trade deals, or the direction of the country,” he said.

Caddell said Clinton voters are already poised to break off from her.

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your opinion of Hillary Clinton’s comments calling half of Donald Trump’s supporters a “basket of deplorables” and calling them “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic, you name it.Forty-four percent said it was a major issue compared with 37 percent, who said it was not a major issue.

Caddell said the next question: “Do you think Hillary Clinton’s previously mentioned comments reflect contempt for average Americans?” went back to the candidate-against-candidate paradigm, so it came up with 46 percent agreeing and 44 percent disagreeing.

Then, with the emphasis shifted from the candidates, they were asked: “Do you think her comments are shared by many in the political establishment and major media?”

This time 66 percent of respondents said they agreed and 17 percent said they disagreed.

Caddell said the people are not with Clinton on the issues and they know the media is with her against the New York City developer, as well.

With the next presidential debate scheduled for Sunday, this question was asked: “At the second presidential debate on Oct. 9 between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, do you expect debate moderators Martha Raddatz of ABC and Anderson Cooper of CNN will be fair and even-handed in their treatment of both candidates, or will they be biased in favor of one candidate?

Fifty-eight percent said they expect the moderators to be fair, 40 percent expect the moderators to show favoritism to Clinton–and two percent expect favoritism towards Trump.

Caddell said the results from that question jumped up at him.

“Usually, the Democrats will lie and say they expect the Republican to get favorable treatment–this time, none of them—Democrats, Independents —are even pretending that the moderators would be giving Trump a break,” he said.

“In the vice presidential debate, Mike Pence was strongest when he moved the discussion to those issues, where the American people are in synch with Trump as a change agent,” he said. “On the other side, Tim Kaine was the most effective when he steered the discussion back to Trump, Trump, Trump,” Caddell said.

The danger for Trump is that he has not yet nailed down this dynamic to his advantage, which opens up an opportunity for Clinton to make her own pivot, Caddell said.

“If Clinton breaks with Obama on Obamacare, or more likely, on refugees, she becomes the change agent without losing her base because she has political immunity from the Left,” he said.

“Were this to play out–and it might because the people running the Clinton campaign are very smart–Clinton would be pivoting to becoming the change agent at the same time all the Republican geniuses–who have been wrong all year–would have Trump making peace with the establishment.”

The sample was made up of 39 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans, and 28 percent Independents.

The poll was conducted with random automated phone calls. Results were weighted to match a proprietary turnout model.

National Poll (October 4, 2016) v3 (1) by Breitbart News on Scribd


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