2018 Poll: ‘Kavanaugh Effect’ More Likely to Help Democrats than Republicans

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Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings have made voters more likely to vote for Democrats than Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released on Wednesday.

The poll found that 35% said Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings made them more likely to vote for Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections while 27% said the hearings made them more likely to vote for Republican candidates. The survey, which has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points and was conducted October 18-22, found that a plurality (37%) “said it wouldn’t affect their vote.”

The poll also found “a gender difference: By 3 percentage points, men said it made them more likely to vote Democratic. By 12 points, women said it made them more likely to vote Democratic.”

Though voters may be more likely to vote for Democrats than Republicans in House races based on the nationwide survey, Republicans running in tight races in Republican-leaning districts could still benefit from the Kavanaugh bump.

In addition, the Kavanaugh hearings likely ensured Republicans will control the Senate. Republicans Kevin Cramer (ND), Marsha Blackburn (TN), and Josh Hawley (MO) surged to big leads during the Kavanaugh hearings and have maintained their leads weeks after in their must-win Senate races.

President Donald Trump has called the Kavanaugh hearings a “national disgrace” and blasted the left-wing mobs that did everything they could to agitate, protest, and  prevent Kavanaugh from getting on the Supreme Court.

“Democrats produce mobs, Republicans create jobs,” Trump has been saying on the stump as he tries to rally his supporters by bringing up the Kavanaugh hearings. “This will be an election of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and common sense.”

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