Poll: Republican McSally Takes Commanding 7-Point Lead Over Democrat Sinema in Arizona

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A new poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows Republican Martha McSally steadily leading Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona United States Senate race.

McSally currently holds a seven point lead over Sinema, 52 percent to Sinema’s 45 percent. Two percent are still undecided and one percent support Green candidate Angela Green.

The poll, conducted via phone from October 22-23, also found Sinema to be unfavorable among 50 percent of voters, compared to McSally’s 44 percent.

“With the hottest race in the country coming to an end, McSally is solidifying her lead over Sinema,” said Chief Pollster and Managing Partner Mike Noble. “The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll. We’ll know come Election Night whether they stick with McSally or swing back to Sinema.”

Compared to Sinema’s four percent, McSally is leading with an 88 point margin of 92 percent among Republicans over 55, according to the poll of 600 likely general election voters.

Independents over 55 surveyed in the poll give Sinema a lead of 53 percent, compared to McSally’s 46 percent. Younger independents are leaning towards McSally, giving her a 38-point lead of 68 percent over Sinema’s 30 percent.

In Maricopa County, which contains the largest amount of voters in the state, McSally and Sinema are tied with 49 percent each. McSally currently leads in Pima County with 53 percent and in rural areas with 59 percent. Sinema trails with 46 percent in Pima County and 35 percent in rural areas.

“Considering the historic amount of money spent on this contest, which has been primarily in Pima and Maricopa County, it is ironic that rural Arizonans have tipped the scale in McSally’s direction,” said Data Analyst Noah Rudnick.

The described poll has a margin of error of ± 4%.


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