Poll: Elizabeth Warren Takes the Lead in California; Kamala Harris Flounders

Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris
SAUL LOEB, ROBYN BECK/Getty Images

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is rising in California, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is continuing to flounder, a Change Research poll released Thursday shows.

Change Research polled 3,325 likely Democrat primary voters September 12-15, 2019, and found the Massachusetts senator narrowly leading the field in the Golden State with 25 percent support. Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in a close second with 23 percent support, followed by Joe Biden (D) with 18 percent support.

Harris failed to break into the top tier of candidates in her home state, coming in fourth place with 11 percent support. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in right on her heels with ten percent support, followed by Andrew Yang (D) with three percent and Beto O’Rourke (D), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), who saw two percent support each.

Harris failed to break into the top tier of candidates in her home state, coming in fourth place with 11 percent support. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in right on her heels with ten percent support, followed by Andrew Yang (D) with three percent and Beto O’Rourke (D), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), who saw two percent support each.

According to Change Research, Harris’s saving grace is the slight edge she has among black voters in the state, with a three-point lead over Biden.

Change Research reports:

Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in California with 45% of the vote, followed by Warren with 18% and Harris and Yang, both with 8%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Warren leads with 28%, followed by Sanders (23%) and Harris (14%). Support for Sanders significantly drops among voters 50 years and older. Warren (26%) leads Biden (25%) by 1-point among voters 50-64 years old, while Warren and Biden are tied among voters 65 years and older, each with 29%.

Kamala Harris leads among black voters with 27%, followed by Biden (24%), and Warren (21%). Asian voters support Biden (22%), followed by Warren (21%), Sanders (18%), and Yang (14%). Among Latinx voters, Sanders leads both Warren and Biden by 17-points with 35%. Warren leads white voters with 31%, followed by Sanders (19%), and Biden (16%).

The margin of error is +/- 1.7 percent:

The results follow a California Emerson College poll released this week, showing Sanders and Biden leading the field in California with 26 percent support each, and Warren coming in third place with 20 percent support. Harris fared worse in the California Emerson College poll, falling behind for a fifth-place position with just six percent support.

Harris’s ongoing struggle in recent polls has caused her campaign to shift its strategy, pumping resources into Iowa. The California lawmaker made headlines this week after telling a colleague that she is “f*cking moving to Iowa”:

According to the Des Moines Register, Harris’s campaign is nearly doubling its staffers in Iowa — adding 60 — and opening ten additional office locations.

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