Joe Biden Loses Lead to Sanders in Morning Consult’s National Poll

Joe Biden
Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has overtaken Joe Biden (D) as the national leader in the latest Morning Consult poll, released Tuesday, which also shows Michael Bloomberg (D) rounding out the top tier.

The survey, released the week of New Hampshire’s highly anticipated Democrat primary election, shows Sanders overtaking Biden, 25 percent to 22 percent — a steep dropoff from the 32 percent the former vice president saw late December. The socialist senator’s three-point lead is significant, as it represents the first time Biden has lost his lead in the national Morning Consult poll.

Bloomberg rounds out the top tier with 17 percent support, while Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Pete Buttigieg (D) battle for fourth place with 11 percent support each.

Andrew Yang (D) comes seven points behind with four percent support, followed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Tom Steyer (D), both of whom garner three percent support each.

The overall trend spells trouble for Biden, whose “share of first-choice support fell 6 percentage points since before the Iowa caucuses,” as Morning Consult notes. Warren has also lost three percentage points since the pre-Iowa poll.

Bloomberg and Buttigieg are currently experiencing the most significant boost, gaining three points and five points, respectively.

As Morning Consult reported:

Increases in support across the board for Bloomberg, who is not competing in nominating contests until Super Tuesday, were more incremental, while Buttigieg’s bumps were more dramatic, a reflection of the momentum following his narrow victory in Iowa, as detailed by the Iowa Democratic Party’s count of state delegate equivalents, but also his lower share of support heading into the caucuses.

Respondents were also asked to identify their second-choice candidate. The greatest percentage of Biden supporters, 28 percent, chose Sanders as their second choice, while 30 percent of Sanders supporters chose Warren. It was almost reciprocal, as the greatest share of Sanders supporters, 35 percent, selected Warren as their second choice. According to the results, Bloomberg stands the greatest chance of benefitting from a scenario of Buttigieg dropping out of the race, as 20 percent chose the billionaire as their second-choice candidate.

The survey, conducted February 4–9, 2020, among 15,346 Democrat primary voters, has a margin of error of +/- 1 percent.

A national Quinnipiac University poll released Monday also showed Sanders leading the Democrat field with 25 percent support, followed by Biden, who garnered 17 percent, and Bloomberg, who edged out Warren with 15 percent to her 14 percent.


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