Poll: President Trump Down by Double Digits in Key Rust Belt States

US President Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn upon returning to the White House in
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

President Trump is losing his footing in key Rust Belt states as Joe Biden (D) surges, a Restoration PAC poll released this week revealed.

The survey was conducted June 8-20, in the midst of the civil unrest unraveling across the country. Restoration PAC surveyed 600 likely voters in each of the three states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Biden leads by double digits in all three states and has gained ground since May’s survey:

Michigan: Biden +17.5 percent
Trump: 36.8 percent
Biden: 54.3 percent

Wisconsin: Biden +16.5 percent
Trump: 37.8 percent
Biden: 54.3 percent

Pennsylvania: Biden +11.7 percent
Trump: 41.8 percent
Biden: 53.5 percent

According to the survey, the largest share of respondents in Michigan and Wisconsin consider themselves independents or independent leaning — 37.2 percent and 36 percent, respectively. Notably, the biggest share of respondents in Pennsylvania considers themselves Democrats — 41.8 percent to Republicans’ 38 percent and independents’ 20.2 percent. Female respondents also edged out male voters in all three surveys — representing 52.7 percent of the respondents in Pennsylvania, 53.5 percent in Wisconsin, and 52.3 percent in Michigan — a factor that could be considered when analyzing the results, as Biden tends to perform stronger among female voters.

“We hope this is President Trump’s low point in 2020 and a restoration of order and improving economy will improve his standing in coming weeks,” Restoration PAC founder and president, Doug Truax, said in a statement.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- three percent.

Last month’s survey, released prior to the George Floyd protests and skyrocketing coronavirus cases in the U.S.,  showed Trump taking the lead in Pennsylvania, leading the former vice president 50.2 percent to 45.5 percent. That alone reflected a 4.7 percent jump from the previous survey. However, last month’s polls continued to show Biden leading in Wisconsin and Michigan, albeit by slimmer margins:

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a surprise upset in all three states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — in 2016.

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