Poll: Trump Takes Lead over Biden

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty
MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty

A new poll released this weekend shows President Donald Trump, the incumbent GOP president, has taken a national and battleground states lead over his Democrat challenger presumptive nominee former Vice President Joe Biden.

The survey, from the Democracy Institute commissioned by the Sunday Express newspaper, shows Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent. What’s more, Trump has opened up a bigger lead according to this poll in the crucial battleground states, meaning the president by this pollster’s estimates currently is projected to win 309 electoral votes—more than he did in 2016.

Overall, this poll has Trump nationally at 48 percent to Biden’s 46 percent with six percent undecided. Among white voters, Trump leads 53 percent to 46 percent. Trump is surprisingly strong with black voters at 20 percent in this poll—he got about eight percent of the black vote in 2016—while this survey has Biden at 77 percent. Hispanic voters in this poll break for Biden 51 percent to 38 percent, which would also represent an increase for the president over his 2016 performance with Hispanics.

“Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229,” David Maddox, the political editor for the Sunday Express, wrote about his newspaper’s survey.

The poll has Trump leading in Florida 47 to 45 percent, leading in Minnesota 46 percent to 45 percent, and in New Hampshire 46 percent to 43 percent. “The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy,” Maddox wrote. “With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.”

When it comes to the electoral college, this pollster argues that Trump will pick up Minnesota and New Hampshire but that Biden would pick up Wisconsin.

Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham is quoted as saying the survey data seems to demonstrate that Biden’s campaign may have “reached its high water mark.”

“Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing,” Basham said. “And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favour. More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”

As Breitbart News has reported previously about these Democracy Institute surveys, Basham is trying to get ahead of the curve of trends of other pollsters—most of whom show Biden winning right now even though they are finding a tightening race—by identifying what he calls a “shy” Trump voter. That so-called “silent majority” is what the president is banking on being there to win the election, just like it was there for him in 2016.

In fact, Basham’s latest Democracy Institute poll found that the percent of “shy” Trump voters has increased from 66 percent in his last poll last month to 71 percent now—part of why Trump has taken the lead. However, this poll also tracks with other surveys in showing a big enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden when it comes to their supporters. This poll shows 79 percent of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him whereas just 41 percent of Biden supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him. Only four percent of Trump supporters say they could change their vote but 10 percent of Biden voters say they could switch.

Also, concerns over Biden’s cognitive decline are on the rise causing more people to say they might not vote for him because they are concerned about his faculties and capability to lead should he win the election.

“Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the Presidential election, a new poll has revealed,” Maddox wrote. “According to this month’s poll 58 percent believe Mr Biden is suffering from cognitive decline compared to 55 percent last month. More worryingly for the former Vice President and Senator, is that 48 percent are less likely to vote for him as a result compared to 40 percent a month ago.”

While the pandemic continues to dog Trump, part of the reason for his recent surge is that as concerns over coronavirus recede the focus has shifted among the public from a fear of the virus to who can best lead the country’s economic resurgence.

“The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy,” Maddox wrote. “With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.”

But overall voters disapprove of how Trump has handled the pandemic, something that could if it strikes again in the fall hurt him. That being said, an overwhelming majority support Trump—and oppose Biden—when it comes to reopening schools in the fall.

“The one issue that continues to bug President Trump is his handling of the coronavirus crisis,” Maddox wrote. “According to the poll one in five Americans see it as the top election issue putting it level with education and behind the economy. However, 49 percent disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the crisis while only 41 percent approve. Nevertheless 64 percent support Mr Trump’s calls for schools to reopen soon in the wake of the crisis.”

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