National Polls: Biden’s Lead over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points

FILE - In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmi
AP Photo, File

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in the national popular vote has shrunk to just three points, according to the two most recent polls released by major polling firms.

The Hill-HarrisX poll released on Wednesday gave Biden a 43 percent to 40 percent lead in the national popular vote, while the Rasmussen Reports poll released on the same day gave Biden a 48 percent to 45 percent lead.

Biden’s lead is slightly beyond the margin of error in both polls.

The Hill HarrisX poll, “was conducted online within the United States from August 2-5, 2020 among 2,850 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 1.84 percentage points.”

The Rasmussen Reports poll “of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 29-30 and August 2-4, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but lost the presidency since the Constitution specifies the president is elected by a majority of electoral college votes.

As Breitbart News reported last week, Joe Biden may have an even more difficult time winning the electoral college vote, despite a potentially greater popular vote margin over Trump in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had in 2016 due to his anticipated huge popular vote margin over Trump in California:

In 2016, when she won California by 30 points – 4.3 million votes more than Donald Trump – Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college vote on election day by 306 to 232, despite winning the popular vote by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Had Hillary won California by 39 points in 2016, her raw vote margin over Trump would have been 1.2 million more, or 5.5 million, and she would have won the popular votes by four percentage points, 49 percent to 45 percent, but still lost the electoral college vote by the same election day margin of 306 to 232. (Note, due to seven faithless electors, the final electoral college vote was 304 for Trump and 227 for Clinton.)

Both the Hill-HarrisX poll and the Rasmussen Reports poll are included in the Real Clear Politics poll average, which currently shows Biden with a 6.4 percent lead when the seven most recent polls extending back to July 23 are included. (Note: The Economist/YouGov poll, one of the seven polls included in this average, which shows Biden leading by nine points appears to have been released on Tuesday, the final day of the survey.)

Biden’s lead over Trump in the Real Clear Politics poll average has dropped almost four points since June 23, when it was 10.2 percent.

Momentum appears to be moving towards Trump recently in the key battleground states as well, as Breitbart News reported earlier this month:

A Restoration PAC poll released Wednesday revealed a positive trend for the president, who appears to be gradually closing the gap on Joe Biden’s sizeable lead in the key Rust Belt states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The latest survey, taken July 13 – 27 among 600 likely voters in each state, showed President Trump narrowing the gap in each state compared to June’s results, which had the former vice president up by double-digits in every state.

Breitbart’s John Nolte offered an explanation last week for the recent swing towards Trump:

After a miserable spring and early summer, President Trump is finally getting good news in the national 2020 polls.

Since mid-July, when the president appeared to wake up to the fact he was losing badly to an imbecilic racist hiding out in his Delaware basement, Trump has become a little more disciplined, a little less self-involved, and voters are rewarding him for it — at least a bit.

A Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, which is not among those included in the Real Clear Politics poll average, released earlier this month, shows President Trump with a two point lead over Biden.

As Breitbart News reported, the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll accounts for the “shy Trump voter” who is reluctant to talk to anyone, including pollsters, about supporting the president:

A new poll released this weekend shows President Donald Trump, the incumbent GOP president, has taken a national and battleground states lead over his Democrat challenger presumptive nominee former Vice President Joe Biden.

The survey, from the Democracy Institute commissioned by the Sunday Express newspaper, shows Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent. What’s more, Trump has opened up a bigger lead according to this poll in the crucial battleground states, meaning the president by this pollster’s estimates currently is projected to win 309 electoral votes—more than he did in 2016.

With less than three months until election day, President Trump currently sits in a better position to win in 2020 against Joe Biden on August 9, 2020, when he trails by 6.4 points, than he did at a similar point in time in the 2016 presidential contest, August 9, 2016, against Hillary Clinton, when he trailed by 7.6 points in the Real Clear Politics poll average.


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