Poll: Plurality Voters Believe Their Neighbors Are Voting for Trump

A plurality of registered voters believe their neighbors are voting for President Trump in the upcoming presidential election, a Harvard/Harris survey reveals.

The survey, taken September 22-24 among 1,314 registered voters, asked respondents who they believe their neighbors are voting for. A plurality, or 43 percent, said Trump, followed by the 36 percent who said Biden and 21 percent who remain unsure.

Trump’s seven-point advantage speaks to the lingering belief in the Silent Majority, which many vocal Trump supporters believe will show up in droves, come November 3:

Who do you think your neighbors are mostly voting for?

Trump 43%
Biden 36%@Harvard–@HarrisPoll 9/22-24https://t.co/fZ3quQh81N

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 5, 2020

Overall, the survey showed Joe Biden (D) leading Trump 47 percent to 45 percent — a lead the poll describes as a “shrinking marginal advantage.” The numbers reflect a three-point bounce for Trump and two-point loss for the former vice president since August. Nine percent indicated that they remain unsure, but among those, Biden holds a double-digit advantage, with 57 stating that they are leaning toward Biden compared to 43 percent for Trump.

However, the “combined horserace,” among likely voters and those who lean toward a candidate, shows Biden with a four-point advantage, 52 percent to 48 percent. Additionally, one-fifth of voters, or 21 percent, indicated that they could change their minds.

Trump’s approval remains on the rise as the election draws closer, standing at 47 percent — up from the 43 percent he saw in June. The perception that the U.S. economy is moving in the “right” direction is also gradually rising, going from a low of 27 percent in May to 35 percent in September. However, it is still down double digits from the 51 percent who expressed the same sentiments in January, prior to the Chinese coronavirus pandemic.

The survey also asked voters, “Is your choice a vote FOR [your candidate] or against the other candidate?” Over three-quarters of voters said they were voting “for” their candidate,” while 23 percent said they were voting “against” the other.

When asked to select the most important issues facing the country today, voters chose the coronavirus, health and jobs, and health care as the top three, Voters also expressed more confidence in Trump over Biden in both “fixing the economy” (56 percent to 44 percent) and “establishing law and order” (51 percent to 49 percent).