Poll: Three-Quarters of Capitol Hill Aides Believe GOP Will Flip House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., talks about House Republicans and the election, during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Nearly three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill aides believe Republicans will take back control of the House majority during the 2022 midterm elections.

Punchbowl News’ survey of senior Capitol Hill aides, the Canvass, revealed 73 percent think Republicans will take the speaker’s gavel from Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Although this is down five percent from Punchbowl’s last survey, it still represents a strong majority of Hill staffers.

Republicans only have to flip roughly five seats to regain the House majority; Republicans lost the House majority during the 2018 midterm elections. The loss of the House stalled much of then-President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, and the loss of the House majority might do the same for President Joe Biden’s.

Seventy-five percent of Hill staffers believe Democrats will retain the Senate majority. This is up five percent from the last survey. Democrats currently have a 50-50 split with Republicans in Congress’s upper chamber. The slight majority in the Senate has forced Biden to negotiate with Republicans to either negotiate on issues such as infrastructure or pressure moderate Senate Democrats such as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) or Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) to back more partisan proposals.

Fifty-eight percent of Hill staffers also believe that enhanced unemployment benefits are hurting the labor market, while only 24 percent think it is helping Americans obtain employment.

The party that controls the White House typically loses a significant number of seats during the first midterm elections.

Since World War II, the president’s party has on average lost 27 seats during the midterm elections. The only recent exceptions were in 1998 and 2002 when Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush made modest gains.

Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.

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