Poll: Democrat Phil Murphy’s Lead Narrows to Just 6 Points in New Jersey Governor’s Race

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy talks to reporters after voting in Red Bank, N.J., Tuesday, June 8, 2021. New Jersey voters will decide Tuesday who their candidates will be in the fall election for governor and in every seat in the Democrat-led state Legislature. There's little suspense for Democrats, though, …
AP Photo/Seth Wenig

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s (D) lead over his Republican opponent has fallen to just six points less than one month out from the election, according to the latest poll.

Conducted between October 15-18, the Emerson College/PIX 11 poll puts Phil Murphy ahead of Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by just six points – 50 percent to 44 percent.

With a sample size of 600 likely voters, the poll’s margin of error stands at plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Seven percent of voters still remain undecided, 59 percent of which lean toward Ciattarelli; 41 percent leaning toward Murphy.

“When these voters are allocated, the race tightens to four points, with Murphy at 52 percent and Ciattarelli at 48 percent,” the poll noted.

Murphy is leading among women, 57 percent to 40 percent, while Ciattarelli is leading among men, 50% to 41%. Murphy leads among those aged 18-29 (58 percent to 42 percent), those 30-49 (47 percent to 41 percent), and those 65 and older (53 percent to 42 percent). Among those 50-64, Ciattarelli leads 49 percent to 46 percent.

Among those who have already voted, Murphy leads 76 percent to 24 percent. Murphy also leads among those who are somewhat likely to vote, 45 percent to 40 percent. Among very likely voters, Ciattarelli leads 48 percent to 45 percent. Independents are also leaning towards Ciattarelli, 56 percent to 32 percent.

Both Murphy and Ciattarelli’s favorability ratings in the state are split. Forty-nine percent (49 percent) view Murphy favorably and 47 percent view him unfavorably, with 3 percent having no opinion and 1% have never heard of him. Ciattarelli is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent, while 16 percent have no opinion and 4 percent have never heard of him.

Despite Murphy’s lead, the poll indicates that Ciattarelli has slowly gained momentum while Murphy has dropped in favorability, falling 3 points below a Stockton University poll that put him 9 points about his challenger last month, according to The Hill.

Since June, Murphy’s lead has dropped a full 7 points when a Fairleigh Dickinson University put him ahead Ciattarelli by a whopping 15 points – 48 percent to 33 percent.


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