Analysis: Two Texas Democrat Congressional Districts Become More Vulnerable

Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, speaks about the United States-Mexico border during a news co
AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved two Democrat-held congressional districts to more vulnerable positions in a report released Wednesday, indicating Democrats in South Texas are in trouble heading into the midterms.

The Center for Politics moved Texas’s 28th Congressional District — currently represented by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), whose home recently went through a “court-authorized” raid carried out by federal authorities — from a “Likely Democratic” district to “Leans Democratic” district.

This is a further indication that the congressman could be in trouble. With the newly rated congressional district, Cuellar is up against the far-left-backed Jessica Cisneros in the Democrat primary, while a pro-Cuellar PAC pulled a TV ad buy nearly a week ahead of its final run date.

The Center for Politics explained that Cuellar has a formidable primary challenger in addition to being in the middle of an investigation where he claims to have “committed no wrongdoing.” The analysis suggested that in addition to the recent events affecting Cuellar, Cisneros would be a weaker candidate if she was to win the primary.

Additionally, Texas’s 34th Congressional District, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) has announced he will run, has moved from a “Safe Democratic” district to a “Likely Democratic” district. Gonzalez switched from the 15th District, after Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX) announced he would be retiring, hoping the 34th would be a safer congressional district.

The new district rating could be a bad sign for Gonzalez. The congressman, who will have to run in a primary against Democrats who were already campaigning before he announced his intention to run, also faced many scandals in 2021, as exclusively reported by Breitbart News, scandals that left some unanswered questions.

The Center for Politics further explained that the district’s rating changed due to President Joe Biden’s “subpar” approval numbers with key minority groups, since the district is 90 percent Hispanic. Furthermore, though the district was drawn to pack in Democrats, the analysis revealed that they have since “eroded” from the area.

“In fact, if their numbers with Hispanics continue to drop, Democrats’ dream of a blue Texas could be set back several cycles,” the Center for Politics stated. “[The year] 2022 could still be a rough year for Democrats there.”

Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said, “South Texas Democrats are facing their nightmare scenario. They already know Democrats’ economic and border crises will doom them in 2022, having to defend a corrupt congressman is just the cherry on top.”

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on Twitter.


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