Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Maintain 8-Point Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

UNITED STATES - MAY 14: From left, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., newly e
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A generic Republican candidate maintains an eight-point lead over a generic Democrat, the same lead as the previous week, in Rasmussen Reports’ poll released Friday.

As the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections — which are only 116 days away — the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 47 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 39 percent who said they would vote for the Democrat, giving the GOP the same eight-point lead as the previous week.

Only five percent said they would vote for another candidate, and the other eight percent said they were unsure. However, the GOP’s lead rose by three points from the previous week when the lead spread eight points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

The eight-point lead in the poll on the Republican side comes after the Supreme Court’s historic 5-4 opinion overturning Roe v. Wade through its ruling on the Dobbs case, which determined the right to abortion is not included in the Constitution, returning the issue of abortion laws and regulations to state legislatures. The week following the decision, the Republicans only led the generic Congressional ballot by five points.

The Republicans’ steady eight-point lead comes when there are just under four months left before the election, and there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before the November election. However, the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.

Rasmussen had previously noted that in June 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they only held a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.

Additionally, June 2018 was slightly up from May 2018, at which time the Democrats only had a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. That June, the Democrats held a four-point advantage of 45 percent to 41 percent.

Plus, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans became extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.

In this poll, the Republican Party has a heavy advantage (11 points) with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 30 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Additionally, 24 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. The percentage of black voters who said they would vote for Republicans is down three percent from last week.

For Democrats, 58 percent of black voters and 36 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for them. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost four percent of black voters. The percentage of black voters who said they would vote for Democrats is also down three percent from last week.

Furthermore, there is a wide difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 87 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 77 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from July 10 to 14 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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