Donald Trump Leads in Republican 2024 Primary by Double Digits

Former U.S. President Donald Trump greets supporters during a "Save America" rally at Alas
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the hypothetical 2024 Republican primary field by double digits, an Echelon Insights survey found.

Republican and Republican-leaning voters were asked, “If the 2024 Republican presidential primaries were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?”

The vast majority, 58 percent, said they would either definitely or probably support Trump, and of those, 47 percent said they would definitely vote for Trump. Thirty-three percent said they would definitely or probably vote for a different Republican candidate, but of those, only 18 percent said they definitely would.

The survey also asked if Republicans and Republican-leaning voters would chose Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. Again, Trump leads by double digits — 56 percent to DeSantis’s 32 percent. Additionally, a plurality, 38 percent, said DeSantis should only run in 2024 if Trump does not.

Despite Trump’s double-digit lead, the Florida governor is the runaway favorite in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary matchup absent of Trump, leading the crowded field of candidates with 45 percent support. The only other candidate to garner double-digit support is former Vice President Mike Pence with 12 percent support.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at The Rosen Shingle Creek on February 24, 2022 in Orlando, Florida. CPAC, which began in 1974, is an annual political conference attended by conservative activists and elected officials. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at The Rosen Shingle Creek on February 24, 2022 in Orlando, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

When asked why a voter would support Trump over DeSantis in the hypothetical 2024 primary, 39 percent cited his “proven track record” as president, followed by 21 percent who said Trump would “do a better job than DeSantis.” Another ten percent cited Trump’s “excellent” performance on the economy.

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 16: U.S. Vice President Mike Pence waves as he arrives for a speech by President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House on July 16, 2020 in Washington, DC. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a rollback of the National Environmental Policy Act. The administration’s changes to the law aim to decrease the number of infrastructure projects that will be subject to federal NEPA review, hoping to shorten long permit processes and speed up approval. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Then-Vice President Mike Pence waves on the South Lawn of the White House on July 16, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

When asked why a voter would chose DeSantis over Trump, 24 percent said they made their decision because the Florida governor “has a better personality and is more level-headed.” Twenty-two percent said “Trump is too hated, controversial, [and] polarizing,” and 18 percent pointed to DeSantis’s job performance in Florida. 

The survey was taken July 15-18 among 1,022 likely voters and has a +/- 3.4 percent margin of error. 

DeSantis has not shown any signs of running in 2024, dismissing rumors over the past two years, and telling reporters in September 2021 that “all the speculation about me [running for president] is purely manufactured.”

Trump, however, has dropped several hints since leaving office, recently telling New York Magazine that he has already made a decision. 

“Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore,” Trump said.

 “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after [the midterms],” he added. 

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