Florida Democrat Governor’s Race Is Up in the Air as Polls Send Mixed Signals

MIAMI, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 23: Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL), a candidate for Governor of Flori
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

The Democrat primary race for governor in Florida remains up in the air leading to the swiftly approaching election, as various polls send mixed signals; separate surveys this week show both Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) and Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried (D) leading.

The Sunshine State’s Democrat primary race, which takes place Tuesday, August 23, 2022, is widely believed to be between two main candidates — Crist and Fried. While Crist has been assumed throughout the primary to be the clear leader, a recent survey from the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida suggests otherwise.

According to the survey, released Tuesday, 47 percent of likely Democrat voters said they would support Fried, putting Crist four points behind with 43 percent support. 

“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about their vote choice in February,” Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director, said in a statement. 

“It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her,” he added:

Even though Fried leads Crist, her victory would not bode well for Democrats in the general election, as 50 percent said they would support Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), compared to 43 percent who said Fried. However, DeSantis also bests Crist, leading the Democrat congressman in a head-to-head matchup 50 percent to 42 percent. 

The survey was taken August 8-12, 2022, among 1,624 registered Florida voters and has a +/- 3.4 percent margin of error. 

While this poll provided positive news for Fried, Crist released an internal poll this week, showing him leading his challenger, Fried, by double digits — 52 percent to 36 percent:

Regardless, Thursday’s RealClearPolitics average showed DeSantis leading both potential challengers — Crist by 6.2 percent and Fried by 9.6 percent.

Both candidates have bragged of their devotion to reversing DeSantis’s leadership style, as they both vocally stood against parental rights in classrooms and championed coronavirus mandates and restrictions.

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