Thirty-two days before the midterm election, the lead for a Republican candidate expanded to four points against a Democrat on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday.
The poll found that 47 percent of likely U.S. voters said they would elect a Republican, while 43 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Only three percent said they would vote for another candidate, while another seven said they were not sure.
Nevertheless, a four-point lead on the generic ballot four weeks away from the election is a good sign for the Republicans, who are looking to net five seats, win back the majority, and unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her Speakership. In fact, the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.
Rasmussen noted that in October 2018 — before Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they had a five-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 42 percent. But as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between Democrats and Republicans became extremely close: Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats — which is what the generic ballot is currently showing.
In this poll, the Republican party showed a narrow lead with independents over Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 37 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Additionally, 19 percent of black voters and 40 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. A Democrat candidate would garner support from 69 percent of black voters and 46 percent of other minority groups.
Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 88 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 83 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.
The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from October 2 to 6 and questioned 2,500 likely United States voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.