Exclusive – 2024 National GOP Primary Poll: Donald Trump Holds Commanding Lead

Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally on May 28, 2022, in Casper, Wyom
Chet Strange/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over the rest of a potential 2024 GOP primary field, a poll from Cygnal provided exclusively to Breitbart News ahead of its public release shows.

The national survey, conducted October 10-12 with a margin of error of 2.82 percent, polled 1,204 likely 2024 GOP primary voters nationally. It found Trump leading the possible field with a near-majority at 45 percent. The next closest competitor was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who trailed Trump by nearly 20 percent and came in down at 26 percent.

After that, former Vice President Mike Pence comes in at 9 percent and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley comes in at 3 percent. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) comes in at 3 percent as well, but her favorability rating is by far the worst of any Republican in the survey with 60 percent of Republicans viewing her unfavorably, including 45 percent who view her very unfavorably.

From there, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) comes in at 2 percent. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott both come in at 0.9 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 0.8 percent, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 0.7 percent, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Tim Scott (R-SC) all at 0.4 percent, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp both at 0.3 percent. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) all get 0.2 percent, and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) gets 0.1 percent. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson gets 0.0 percent, and 6 percent are unsure.

If Trump does not run in 2024, DeSantis takes the lead over the field — but he does not take all or even most of Trump’s 45 percent. In such a Trump-less field scenario, DeSantis jumps up 20 points from 26 percent up to 46 percent — meaning he only takes 20 percent of Trump’s 45 percent — and then the rest is split across the rest of the field. In a Trump-less field, Pence shoots up to 17 percent, and Cruz and Haley each get 4 percent. Cheney is stuck at 3 percent in that scenario while Rubio, Abbott, and Pompeo all get 2 percent. Christie and Hogan each get a percent, and the rest are still getting fractional support less than a percent.

The top issue, far and away, for 2024 GOP primary voters is inflation and the cost of living. At 44 percent, it towers over the next issue—illegal immigration, at 17 percent—in terms of importance to those surveyed. Next up, at 15 percent, is the economy and jobs, while government spending and the deficit as well as national security come in at 6 percent. Five percent said crime and public safety was the top issue, while 4 percent said healthcare, 1 percent said the Second Amendment, and 2 percent were unsure.

The broader slide deck breaks down the issues even more, and is available here:

20444 Cygnal National Deck by Breitbart News on Scribd

Trump’s favorability is extremely high among likely 2024 GOP primary voters. The Cygnal survey found that 77 percent view him favorably—including 50 percent who view Trump very favorably—while on 9 percent view him somewhat unfavorably and 12 percent very unfavorably. Trump is also the only potential candidate who has universal name ID and everyone expressed an opinion about him.

Voters who picked Trump pointed to his record of accomplishment as president as part of why they wanted him again.

“He’s sincere about helping the people,” said one voter quoted in the poll.

Another added:

His record as a leader was unquestionable amid the leftist media onslaught of daily slander and defamation he endured, yet he still accomplished more than all Democrats combined since 2007. All the Democrats did was spend $20,000,000,000,000 of your and my tax dollars for their pension.

“I like Donald Trump, mainly because he has done for our country,” a third added. “I also love that he is not afraid to stand up for what he believes.”

Other quotes were similar. The two highest “emotions” respondents said they felt with regard to Trump were “joy” and “trust,” with him earning 37.4 percent and 34.2 percent respectively on those.

DeSantis, meanwhile, enjoys similarly high favorability ratings—but is less known than Trump. Sixty-nine percent view DeSantis favorably, including 50 percent who view him very favorably, whereas just 13 percent view him unfavorably including 7 percent who view him unfavorably. Nine percent had no opinion of DeSantis and another 9 percent said they had never heard of him—meaning close to a fifth of national GOP primary voters either had no opinion or were unaware of the Florida governor.

When asked what emotions they associated with DeSantis, respondents similar ranked “trust” and “joy”—just like they did with Trump—as the top two but in reverse order. A total of 43.1 percent said their top emotion with DeSantis is “trust,” and 36.5 percent said “joy.”

No other Republican surveyed gets close to the 50 percent that Trump and DeSantis do of respondents viewing them very favorably, but three others—Pence, Cruz, and Rubio—have majorities that view them either very or somewhat favorably. Haley, Abbott, and Pompeo all get close to a majority, in the mid-to-high 40s.

Cheney was the only Republican whose name was tested who had a net negative favorability rating.

In addition to Cheney’s abysmal favorability ratings among Republicans, Christie scored second worst among Republicans tested in the Cygnal poll. A full 31 percent viewed Christie unfavorably—18 percent somewhat and 13 percent very unfavorably. Thirty-nine percent did view Christie favorably, but only 9 percent viewed him very favorably.

Generally speaking, governors who were tested in the poll tended to have high favorability ratings as compared with those who viewed them unfavorably. For instance, in addition to the DeSantis numbers, Abbott had 46 percent who viewed him favorably—including 27 percent very favorably—while just 10 percent viewed him either somewhat or very unfavorably. Youngkin’s split was 31 percent favorable versus 8 percent unfavorable, Noem’s was 30 percent versus 9 percent, Kemp’s was 28 percent versus 10 percent, Hogan’s was 17 percent versus 10 percent, Hutchinson’s was 19 percent versus 10 percent, and Sununu’s was 20 percent versus 12 percent. Even Christie—a former governor—was 39 versus 31 percent. It’s also worth noting that Pence, Rick Scott, and Haley are all former governors too.


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