Key Arizona Races Too Close to Call, Tabulation Continues

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 01: (L-R) Republican candidate for state attorney general Abraha
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson
[11:34 a.m.] Update: Democrat Kris Mayes has jumped back in the lead in the Attorney General race. The vote results in Arizona’s most prominent statewide races are as follows as of 10:45 a.m. EST. Thursday, according to the New York Times:
Governor’s Race – 70 percent reporting:
  • Democrat Katie Hobbs: 953,783 – 50.34 percent
  • Republican Kari Lake 940,716 – 49.66 percent
U.S. Senate Race – 70 percent reporting:
  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): 979,509 – 51.4 percent
  • Republican Blake Masters: 884,191 –46.4 percent
  • Libertarian Marc Victor: 40,811 – 2.1 percent
Attorney General Race – 70 percent reporting:
  • Democrat Kris Mayes: 933,279– 50.11 percent
  • Republican Abe Hamadeh: 929,036 – 49.89 percent
Secretary of State Race – 70 percent reporting:
  • Democrat Adrian Fontes: 980,143 – 52.4 percent
  • Republican Mark Finchem: 890,376 – 47.6 percent

[6:55 p.m.] Update: Republican Abe Hamadeh has taken the lead over Democrat Kris Mayes and is declaring victory in Arizona’s attorney general race. As of 6:41 p.m. EST, the New York Times reported that Hamadeh has taken the lead with 895,573 votes to Mayes’ 891,717 with 67 percent of the vote reported. Hamadeh has secured 50.11 percent of the vote, while Mayes garnered 49.89 percent.

While GOP operative Ric Grenell declared Hamadeh the winner shortly after the lead-change, the race has not been officially called. Hamadeh appears to have declared victory:
https://twitter.com/AbrahamHamadeh/status/1590471889969098753
https://twitter.com/AbeWarRoom/status/1590472458783846400
The vote results in Arizona’s other most prominent races are as follows as of 6:41p.m. EST. Wednesday, according to the New York Times:
Governor’s Race – 67 percent reporting:
  • Democrat Katie Hobbs: 910,840 – 50.11 percent
  • Republican Kari Lake 906,891 – 49.89 percent
U.S. Senate Race – 67 percent reporting:
  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): 935,501 – 51.2 percent
  • Republican Blake Masters: 852,375 –46.6 percent
  • Libertarian Marc Victor: 39,305 – 2.2 percent
Secretary of State – 67 percent reporting:
  • Democrat Adrian Fontes: 936,223 – 52.2 percent
  • Republican Mark Finchem: 858,786 – 47.8 percent

Key statewide races in Arizona remain too close to call after Republicans began cutting into Democrats’ early leads Wednesday morning.

The vote results in four of Arizona’s most influential races are as follows as of 4:40 p.m. EST. Wednesday, according to the New York Times:

Governor’s Race – 66 percent reporting:

  • Democrat Katie Hobbs: 903,049 – 50.33 percent
  • Republican Kari Lake 891,172 – 49.67 percent

U.S. Senate Race – 68 percent reporting:

  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): 927,423 –  51.4 percent
  • Republican Blake Masters: 837,261 –46.4 percent
  • Libertarian Marc Victor: 38,904 – 2.2 percent

Attorney’s General Race – 66 percent reporting:

  • Democrat Kris Mayes: 884,125 – 50.11 percent
  • Republican Abe Hamadeh: 879,948 – 49.89 percent

Secretary of State – 66 percent reporting:

  • Democrat Adrian Fontes: 928,268 – 52.4 percent
  • Republican Mark Finchem: 843,511 – 47.6 percent

The publication notes the vote total reporting percentage provided in the U.S Senate race is its own estimate; no such caveat is listed beside state races. Midday Wednesday, Lake and Masters’ campaigns expressed confidence that they will be victorious in their respective races.

After jumping out to a hot start, Democrats have watched their leads over Republicans dwindle since early this morning. Arizona ABC 15 Data Analyst Garrett Archer reported that all four republicans took a more than 73 percent share of a significant 136,998 ballot batch out of Maricopa County around 3:30 a.m. EST. Another set of votes that followed soon after helped propel them further by the time Maricopa stopped counting for the evening. The candidates continued to close the gap into Wednesday afternoon.

At around 1:00 p.m. EST. Wednesday, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer reported that, at 7:00 a.m local time, his office began the signature verification process of more than 275,000 early vote ballots dropped off on Election Day. Once the signature is verified and identity is confirmed, “They are sent ahead to a bipartisan ballot processing team,” Richer noted.

“That team removes the ballot from the envelope” and “Makes sure the ballot is the correct style,… isn’t damaged (e.g. torn), or unreadable (e.g. red ink or coffee stain),” said the Maricopa County recorder. From there, they are sent to the county Board of Supervisors for tabulation.

He added that another 86,000 ballots received by his office on “Friday, Saturday, and Sunday” already went through the verification process and were sent to the Board of Supervisors for tabulation. Richer said an additional 50,000 early vote ballots submitted Monday would be sent to the board sometime Wednesday after the verification and bipartisan inspections.

Moreover, richer noted that some 230,000 voters cast in-person ballots on Election Day using tabulation machines at polling sites. However, on Tuesday, the county reported that some “60 Vote Centers” in the county were affected by tabulator reader issues. Ultimately, the county determined “some of the printers were not producing dark enough timing marks on ballots,” and “technicians” were “deployed throughout the county” to fix the problems.

Richer stated the “Board will also tabulate any in-person ballots it received yesterday that were not read by the tabulators (approximately 17,000).”

At around 3:20 p.m. EST. Wednesday, Time Politics Reporter Eric Cortellessa tweeted that “a source familiar” said the next batch of votes in Maricopa County will be “the final MAIL ballots received” from Saturday through Tuesday.

“These are expected to be evenly split based on party affiliation; they shouldn’t change the margin much. The Election Day votes should swing heavily to Lake,” he added.

“The late mail ballots became increasingly more Republican in the weeks closer to the election, the source adds, meaning Lake may even tighten her margin,” he wrote in a follow-up tweet. “There will also be more dumps from rural counties that are likely to give her a boost.

Per the Times‘ election results, no county has reported above 93 percent of its vote totals, and approximately 65 percent of Maricopa County votes are reflected in its current results.

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