Republicans in the House of Representatives have a slight advantage in the 2024 election map, according to the first rating analysis from Cook Political Report.
As the 2024 House map begins to take shape, and Democrats and Republicans start to announce their candidacies for office, Republicans appear to have a slight edge in the next election cycle, when they hope to expand their majority.
With all 435 seats up for election, Cook Political indicated in the first analysis that 42 of the seats are considered competitive, with more of them correctly being held by Democrats. But, many of the competitive seats are in New York this cycle — where Republicans picked up multiple seats:
New @CookPolitical: our initial 2024 House race ratings, w/ 20 Toss Ups. Biggest upside for Dems? 18 GOP members in Biden-won districts. For Republicans? Potential new gerrymanders in NC & OH. Full analysis: https://t.co/wFZUpEZZpy pic.twitter.com/AFWLtWPr2s
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 2, 2023
Of the seats considered a “toss-up,” 11 are currently represented by Democrats, and nine are represented by Republicans.
Additionally, of the seats leaning to a political side, 13 of the seats lean Democrat — with 12 represented by Democrats and one represented by a Republican — while only nine of the seats lean Republican — which are all represented by Republicans.
The one Republican-held seat rated as a lean Democrat is New York’s Third Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. George Santos (R-NY). Cook Political considered him “the single most doomed incumbent in the House.”
The freshman Long Island Republican has faced numerous calls from colleagues to step down from office, and he recently stepped down from his committee assignments. He is also facing multiple investigations by prosecutors into his personal and campaign finances and lies, which he admitted to, about his resumé and family background.
In the midterm elections, the House Republicans were able to flip nine seats, which gave them a slight majority in the 118th Congress.
Of the 42 seats considered competitive by Cook Political, 18 of the districts held by Republicans voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, while only five of the districts held by Democrats voted for former President Donald Trump the same year.