Poll: Donald Trump Takes Double-Digit Lead Among California Republicans

STERLING, VIRGINIA - MAY 27: Former US President Donald Trump looks on from the 18th green
Rob Carr/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump has taken a double-digit lead among California Republicans in the 2024 GOP primary race, a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found.

The most recent survey finds Trump taking a double-digit lead, besting his closest potential challenger — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — by 18 points in the Golden State. Trump garners 44 percent support, while just over a quarter, 26 percent, support DeSantis.

Other declared candidates are considered in the survey as well, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, but no one in the poll — including those two — receives over four percent support besides Trump and DeSantis.

This survey represents a significant shift in favor of Trump since February. Three months ago, DeSantis held an eight-point lead among California Republicans, with 37 supporting the Florida governor and 29 percent supporting Trump.

In other words, DeSantis has experienced an 11-point drop over the last three months, and Trump has experienced a 15-point increase in that same time frame. In all, that reflects a 26-point swing in favor of the former president:

Mark DiCamillo, director of the survey, observed that Trump’s boost among California Republicans came during a prolonged bout of bad press about the former president, including an indictment as well as a sexual-abuse trial involving E. Jean Carroll.

“What was striking to me, in this three-month period, Trump was getting all this negative publicity from the sexual-abuse trial, and his image actually went up,” he said.

“Even when the news isn’t necessarily great, he’s able to give his own opinion about why things are the way they are, and the Republican base pretty much believes him,” DiCamillo observed.

Further, Trump has experienced a five-point boost in terms of favorability over the past three months among California Republicans, jumping from 69 percent to 74 percent. DeSantis, who has a slightly better favorability of 75 percent, experienced a four-point drop in the last three months, further suggesting that current trends favor the former president.

The survey was taken May 17-22, 2023, among 1,472 registered California Republicans and has a +/- 3.5 percent margin of error.

DeSantis, who formally jumped into the presidential race last week, is expected to kick off his early state blitz in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday, visiting other cities across the Hawkeye State before making stops in South Carolina and New Hampshire this week as well.

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