Survey: Minnesota Competitive in Potential 2024 Trump vs. Biden Rematch

WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES - JULY 26: Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump
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Hannah Knudsen

Minnesota appears to be in play in a potential matchup between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, a recent MinnPost/Embold Research poll found.

The survey found both likely nominees “virtually” tied in a head-to-head matchup, with Biden leading Trump by three points — 45 percent to 42 percent.

Another seven percent are not sure, and six percent said they will not vote:

The Minnesota Post concluded that the results show that the Biden campaign cannot take the blue state for granted. That reality comes as Biden faces what polls show as an uphill battle in key swing states, many of which are falling in Trump’s favor in recent surveys.

A New York Times survey released in November, for example, showed Trump leading Biden in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan. An Emerson College poll released that same month found Trump leading Biden in four of six essential battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Further, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in November also found Trump leading Biden in six of seven swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

If Trump becomes the Republican nominee and takes Minnesota in the 2024 presidential election, it would be the first time the state’s electoral votes went to a Republican nominee since Richard Nixon in 1972. Prior to that, the last time the state voted for a Republican nominee was in 1956, Dwight D. Eisenhower.

While it is true that Biden leads Trump among younger voters in  Minnesota, Embold Research pollster Ben Greenfield noted that Biden “has lost some ground relative to his 2020 performance” in those groups, which could affect the outcome.

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Another issue for Biden is that general sentiments are negative, as most, 52 percent, believe things in the state are on the “wrong track,” and 80 percent believe the nation as a whole is on the “wrong track,” identifying inflation as a main concern.

The survey was taken November 14-17, 2023, among 1,519 likely 2024 voters in Minnesota.

Trump came within striking distance of taking Minnesota in the 2016 election, losing by 1.52 percent, or 44,765 votes. He lost the state in 2020 by 7.12 percent, or 233,012 votes, according to official results.

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