Exclusive Value Add Top 100 Pitchers

Thursday and Friday Detroit and Arizona picked up their identical 19th win in 23 starts for Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, respectively. Meanwhile the Los Angeles Dodgers have provided much less support while winning just 13 of 24 with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Those three lead the 100 Most Valuable Pitchers in the Majors as listed below.

Players with at least five starts through August 7 will be included in the game-by-game detailed listing at www.valueaddbaseball.com this weekend, but the leaders’ list is being revealed first at Breitbart Sports.

Of the 3,193 starts in the database, an average game includes 4.20 runs of support for the pitcher, while relief pitching gives back 1.32 and the defense gives back 0.22 for a Net Support figure of 2.66. The average starter lasts 6.01 innings, which would mean the average ERA Needed to win a game would add up to 3.98, but the average is really a bit higher since games that have less than one run of support are given a 0.00 ERA Needed (e.g. 0 runs scored minus 1 relief run and 1 run allowed is counted as 0 runs of support rather than -2).

Given the offensive and defensive support Scherzer has received, a replacement pitcher (marginal major leaguer) could have won 7.17 games, while the same would have won 5.97 games given Corbin’s support (neither figure counts their last starts). However, given Kershaw’s average 2.93 ERA Needed to win, a replacement pitcher would have been expected to win only 3.77 games in his 24 starts.

Ballpark adjustments are made for both Scherzer and Corbin pitching in much better hitters’ parks based on the four-year average of runs scored home and away in each home team’s games. If Kershaw did not get to pitch half of his games in the best pitchers’ park in baseball, his ERA would be an estimated 2.26 and his WHIP would be higher than Scherzer’s. 

The following are the 100 most valuable players and how many additional wins they have been worth to their teams:

100 Most Valuable Pitchers

Through Aug. 7 games: 

1. Patrick Corbin, ARI, 12.23.

2. Max Scherzer, DET, 10.31.

3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 9.35.

4. Jordan Zimmerman, WSH, 9.31.

5. Bartolo Colon, OAK, 9.08.

6. Mat Latos, CIN, 8.92.

7. Julio Teheran, ATL, 8.87.

8. Mike Minor, ATL, 8.55.

9. Justin Masterson, CLE, 8.53.

10. Adam Wainwright, STL, 8.19.

11. Chris Tillman, BAL, 8.15.

12. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD, 8.13.

13. Matt Harvey, NYM, 8.10.

14. Madison Bumgarner, SF, 7.87.

15. Derek Holland, TEX, 7.85.

16. Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA, 7.82.

17. Jhoulys Chacin, COL, 7.82.

18. Mike Leake, CIN, 7.81.

19. Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, 7.72.

20. Jeremy Guthrie, KC, 7.55.

21. Yu Darvish, TEX, 7.43.

22. Cliff Lee, PHI, 7.37.

23. Clay Buchholz, BOS, 7.29.

24. James Shields, KC, 7.24.

25. Zack Greinke, LAD, 7.07.

26. Matt Moore, TB, 6.95.

27. Jorge De La Rosa, COL, 6.90.

28. Shelby Miller, STL, 6.85.

29. Chris Sale, CHW, 6.83.

30. Jeff Locke, PIT, 6.78.

31. Francisco Liriano, PIT, 6.76.

32. Felix Hernandez, SEA, 6.70.

33. Felix Doubront, BOS, 6.65.

34. Ervin Santana, KC, 6.63.

35. Mark Buehrle, TOR, 6.62.

36. Bronson Arroyo, CIN, 6.54.

37. Jose Fernandez, MIA, 6.47.

38. Jon Lester, BOS, 6.28.

39. R.A. Dickey, TOR, 6.27.

40. A.J. Griffin, OAK, 6.25.

41. Jered Weaver, LAA, 6.12.

42. Lance Lynn, STL, 6.11.

43. Miguel Gonzalez, BAL, 6.03.

44. Ricky Nolasco, LAD, 5.96.

45. Jeremy Hellickson, TB, 5.94.

46. Doug Fister, DET, 5.83.

47. Kris Medlen, ATL, 5.77.

48. Kyle Lohse, MIL, 5.75.

49. C.J. Wilson, LAA, 5.74.

50. Jeff Samardzija, CHC, 5.72.

51. Gio Gonzalez, WSH, 5.53.

52. Justin Verlander, DET, 5.52.

53. Dillon Gee, NYM, 5.47.

54. Kyle Kendrick, PHI, 5.43.

55. Samuel Deduno, MIN, 5.37.

56. Matt Garza, CHC, 5.32.

57. A.J. Burnett, PIT, 5.27.

58. Eric Stults, SD, 5.17.

59. Jonathan Pettibone, PHI, 5.11.

60. Homer Bailey, CIN, 5.07.

61. Rick Porcello, DET, 4.93.

62. Bud Norris, BAL, 4.91.

63. Tim Hudson, ATL, 4.84.

64. CC Sabathia, NYY, 4.82.

65. David Price, TB, 4.67.

66. Travis Wood, CHC, 4.58.

67. Jarrod Parker, OAK, 4.47.

68. Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE, 4.43.

69. John Lackey, BOS, 4.42.

70. Ryan Dempster, BOS, 4.40.

71. Jake Peavy, BOS, 4.39.

72. Randall Delgado, ARI, 4.39.

73. Scott Feldman, BAL, 4.32.

74. Zach McAllister, CLE, 4.31.

75. Jason Marquis, SD, 4.23.

76. Corey Kluber, CLE, 4.22.

77. Anibal Hanchez, DET, 4.20.

78. Wily Peralta, MIL, 4.16.

79. Jake Westbrook, STL, 4.03.

80. David Phelps, NYY, 3.92.

81. Matt Cain, SF, 3.89.

82. Andrew Cashner, SD, 3.82.

83. Jason Vargas, LAA, 3.80.

84. Tommy Milone, OAK, 3.75.

85. Jose Quintana, CHW, 3.67.

86. Kevin Correia, MIN, 3.65.

87. Chris Archer, TB, 3.62.

88. Wei-Yin Chen, BAL, 3.61.

89. Marco Estrada, MIL, 3.53.

90. Joe Saunders, SEA, 3.44.

91. Martin Perez, TEX, 3.31.

92. Tyler Chatwood, COL, 3.14.

93. Charlie Morton, PIT, 3.14.

94. Edinson Volquez, SD, 3.11.

95. Dallas Keuchel, HOU, 3.10.

96. Alexi Ogando, TEX, 2.96.

97. Edwin Jackson, CHC, 2.94.

98. Ian Kennedy, ARI, 2.83.

99. Alex Cobb, TB, 2.74.

100. Jacob Turner, MIA, 2.73.


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