The first poll out of Iowa in three weeks shows a massive surge for Dr. Ben Carson, who now leads Donald Trump 28% to 20%. Back in September, a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had Trump beating Carson +5 in Iowa, 24% to 19%. Back in September, in this same Quinnipiac poll, Trump led 27% to 21%.
This is only one poll. More will be necessary to reveal if what we have here is an outlier or a consequential shift of momentum in the first primary state.
Carson’s advantage comes almost exclusively from women voters. Among men, Carson and Trump are virtually tied at 25% to 24%, respectively. Among women, Carson crushes Trump 33% – 13%.
Carson also crushes Trump on issues of shared values (27% – 15%), can win the general election (32% – 13%), and trustworthiness (40% to 15%). Trump leads on leadership (35% to 18%).
On the issues, though, Trump still leads:
Trump tops Carson 41 – 12 percent on the economy;
Trump over Carson 32 – 13 percent on taxes;
Trump tops Carson 37 – 9 percent on illegal immigration;
Rubio and Trump are close at 18 – 17 percent, respectively, on foreign policy, with Carson at 9 percent.
Carson’s favorability rating is an astonishing 84% favorable – 10% unfavorable. Trump is rightside up, but with a much smaller, 53% – 43%, margin.
Why Carson Surged
From my perspective Carson’s surge is not surprising. Two weeks ago, the DC Media coordinated a hit job on the good doctor over his not-at-all controversial comments regarding gun confiscation in Nazi Germany and suggesting self-defense in a mass-shooter situation.
While Carson has said some dumb things in the past, what happened during this past week (the same week NBC ran to Hillary Clinton’s rescue) was a ginned up controversy coordinated by a racist DC media that believes black people should think only a certain way.
Going back to slavery and Jim Crow, Democrats have always sought to personally destroy blacks who stray from the ThoughtPlantation and threaten the Democrat power structure. What we saw from the DC media two weeks ago was just an updated version of fire hoses, German Shepherds, and cross burnings.
Nevertheless, the fact that Carson is a victim of racism is not enough to boost him in the polls. What boosted Carson is how well he handled himself. In the face of his racist DC Media oppressors, Carson was calm and articulate; he won every round. This showed voters that Carson not only has the grit to stand his ground but that he is improving greatly as a candidate.
Carson is polling extremely well against Hillary. Which means that between that and the color of his skin, the DC Media will do whatever it takes to destroy him.
Jeb Bush Is Toast
Back in September, Jeb Bush sat at 6%. Today he sits at 5%.
Only 1% believe he shares their values; 6% see him as a strong leader, 3% see him as trustworthy, and only 8% believe he can win.
Bush’s favorability rating is upside down 43% – 51%.
Marco Rubio Surge
Marco Rubio’s support jumped from 5% in September to a third place showing of 13%.
Rubio also has the second highest favorability rating: 70% – 15%.
If the Republican Establishment is going to rally around someone to defeat the outsiders Carson and Trump, Rubio is a much better bet than Jeb.
Rest of the Field
Ted Cruz is in 4th place at 10%. Rand Paul sits at 6%. Carly Fiorina sits at 5%. Everyone else is at 3% or below.
In a general election match-up, the Real Clear Politics poll of polls shows Carson beating Hillary by +5 points.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC