In the battle for control of Congress, Republicans are expected to hold the US House in the November general election, but the tougher question is whether Democrats can do the same in the Senate.
An anti-incumbent wave, propelled by fury over President Barack Obama’s watershed health care reforms and runaway federal spending, washed over Capitol Hill in 2010, bringing the largest freshman class in six decades into the House, the vast majority of them Republicans.
Democratic numbers in the Senate shrank too, but they held onto a 51-47 majority, with two independents who caucus with Democrats.
Two years later, with the fate of an incumbent president on the line in a neck-and-neck race, any congressional tidal shift is expected to be less dramatic — meaning the infuriating stalemate in Congress will likely continue.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs every two years. The 100-seat Senate has a less frantic approach; with six-year terms, one-third of its members face re-election next month.
But of that third, 23 seats are being defended by Democrats; Republicans must gain at least four of them, while holding their own 10 seats that are up for grabs, in order to seize control.
“Right now the Senate is slightly, slightly leaning Democratic. We’ll see whether that holds throughout the final two weeks,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told AFP.
Experts agree that despite US voter disgust with a “do-nothing Congress” that has failed time and again to pass legislation on consequential issues like taxes, the anti-incumbent thread that dominated 2010 has not materialized.
That’s an advantage for Republicans, particularly the freshmen aligned to the conservative, small-government “Tea Party” wing who have bucked their Republican leadership and refuse to compromise on fiscal legislation that might add to the national debt.
Experts are looking to see whether the results from the November 6 election will help push lawmakers away from the current position of stalemate.
A dangerous combination of expiring tax breaks and federal spending cuts is looming, and the US economy is set to plunge over the so-called “fiscal cliff” in January if Congress does not reach a deal.
Conservatives, however, are promising to reject any tax increases to replace defense spending cuts — something that Democratic leaders and the White House have demanded.
Earlier this year, Democrats began boasting that a re-take of the House was a possibility, despite needing to capture 25 seats.
But that was when Obama was out in front in the presidential contest, whereas now the race looks set to go down to the wire, and experts widely agree that a Democratic takeover is unlikely.
“Republicans are very likely to hold the House, and Democrats may pick up a few seats, but they won’t get near the 25 that they need,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, which follows congressional races.
Republicans have been eyeing a Senate capture, but two major self-inflicted wounds in as many months — on abortion, an issue that Republicans have tended to leverage better than Democrats — may well cost them.
The party saw the Missouri seat occupied by Democrat Claire McCaskill as a golden pick-up opportunity, but in August the Republican candidate, ultra-conservative Todd Akin, uttered shock comments about “legitimate rape” that made fellow Republicans cringe.
Several in his party asked him to quit but he refused, and he now trails McCaskill by about six points in polls.
“It’s really difficult to see how Republicans take the Senate if they don’t win the Missouri race,” said Dick Keil of bipartisan strategy consulting firm Purple Strategies.
In Indiana, another anti-abortion Republican candidate, Richard Mourdock, made headlines this week when he said pregnancies that resulted from rape were what “God intended.”
That leaves Republicans scrambling to win seats in several races in battleground states like Ohio and Virginia.
Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes the closely-followed Rothenberg Political Report, predicted Republicans will pick up between zero and three seats in the Senate.
Congressional races are often impacted by the race at the top of the ticket, but it appears that 2012 will see a magnified effect, as voters assess Obama’s effectiveness in steering the economy out of recession.
In 2008, the race was about moving the country in a new direction; in 2010, it was the anti-incumbent wave.
This year, said Keil, “it’s who is going to get us out of this mess that we’re not out of yet?”
In US Congress races, dramatic power shift unlikely
