Odds and moneylines now strongly indicate: a Trump GOP win, a highly improbable GOP brokered convention, and that Trump is the closest candidate to beat Hillary–who remains the general election favorite.
Virtually every known commodity, company, stock, bond, sporting event, and now political outcome can be legally “betted on.” Participants match their wits directly against other sellers or buyers to determine the victor.
Take, for example, predictit.com, whose main offices are in Washington, DC. The website is owned and was launched in 2014 by New Zealand-based Victoria University of Wellington, a 118 year-old college with specialties in law, humanities, and science. Predictit is considered legal in the United States; it received a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since its question bets are limited to 5,000 traders and an $850 cap on each individual investment. The site does not allow participants from residents of Nevada or Washington, which have stricter laws.
Another site is PADDYPOWER, an Ireland-based public company founded in 1988 with annual bets exceeding $10 Billion USD, net revenues over $1.2 billion, and a profit in excess of $200 million. They have 217 betting shops in Ireland, 139 in Great Britain, and online betting access throughout the world. The company indicates they are presently banned for use by adults residing in the U.S. and many other countries despite their IP and web address fully enabled by my Comcast broadband account.
Both websites have the approximate same odds that provide an average 35% return strongly favoring Donald Trump to win Republican presidential nomination race against all other candidates. Interestingly, recently-appointed Speaker Paul Ryan is included in the running, despite not announcing his candidacy. This makes one wonder exactly what kind of plan was hatched at the Republican establishment’s “Dump Trump” secret cabal meeting attended by Mr. Ryan–with 54 private jets representing elites in attendance from the worlds of tech and Republican politics.. Someone has been willing to place this bet on Ryan or sell it, either making or losing 2,400 percent–or else it would not exist.
The bets or moneyline odds clearly also do not indicate the likelihood of a brokered convention or someone else coming out on top or “out-Trumping” Trump at the convention, or else we would see lower odds for other GOP candidates of the complete separate bet of the US President (2nd table). Outside of the betting-favored matchup between Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, at this time, Bernie Sanders is oddly twice as favored to be president as Senator Ted Cruz. The world’s gamblers predict communism over the constitution.
| 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination moneyline odds | ||||||||
| PredictIt | PADDYPOWER | |||||||
| Per share price* | Total return if correct | Odds* | Total return if correct | |||||
| Donald Trump | $0.69 | 45% | 1 to 3 | 25% | ||||
| Ted Cruz | $0.17 | 488% | 9 to 2 | 550% | ||||
| John Kasich | $0.12 | 733% | 11 to 1 | 1200% | ||||
| Marco Rubio | $0.04 | 2400% | 22 to 1 | 2300% | ||||
| Paul Ryan | $0.04 | 2400% | 33 to 1 | 3400% | ||||
| Mitt Romney | $0.05 | 1900% | 40 to 1 | 4100% | ||||
| *Each share purchased is redeemable at $1.00 | ||||||||
| *Fractional Odds. eg 1:3 means that winners receive $1 for every $3 placed in a bet.
Based on data retrieved 3/13/2016. |
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| 2016 US Presidential Election Betting moneyline odds | |||||||
| PredictIt | PADDYPOWER | ||||||
| Per share price* | Total return if correct | Odds* | Total return if correct | ||||
| Hillary Clinton | $0.57 | 75% | 1 to 2 | 150% | |||
| Donald Trump | $0.28 | 257% | 3 to 1 | 400% | |||
| Bernie Sanders | $0.17 | 488% | 12 to 1 | 1300% | |||
| Ted Cruz | $0.09 | 1011% | 20 to 1 | 2100% | |||
| John Kasich | $0.05 | 1900% | 25 to 1 | 2600% | |||
| Marco Rubio | $0.02 | 4900% | 50 to 1 | 5100% | |||
| Joe Biden | $0.03 | 3233% | 50 to 1 | 5100% | |||
| Paul Ryan | $0.02 | 4900% | 66 to 1 | 6700% | |||
| Mitt Romney | $0.03 | 3233% | 100 to 1 | 10100% | |||
| Elizabeth Warren | $0.02 | 4900% | NA | ||||
| *Each share purchased is redeemable at $1.00 | |||||||
| *Fractional Odds. eg 1:3 means that if you win, you receive $1 for every $3 that you bet.
Based on data retrieved 3/13/2016. |
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