Monmouth Poll: Trump Takes Narrow Lead in Nevada

Trump in Nevada AP PhotoJohn Locher
AP/John Locher

According to the latest Monmouth University poll, Donald Trump has erased Hillary Clinton’s lead from July in Nevada, and is now leading 44% to 42%.

The poll also found Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8%, with “undecided” and “none of the above” pulling 3% each, according to CNN. Jill Stein of the Green Party will not appear on Nevada ballots.

“The race in Nevada is still tight, but the momentum has swung toward Trump,” said Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray.

The poll internals follow patterns familiar from other states: Clinton leads with non-white voters (63%-28%) and women (50%-40%), while Trump leads with white voters (51%-33%) and men (48%-34%).

The two crucial factors in the Monmouth poll are that Trump has consolidated Republican support in Nevada to nearly equal Clinton’s support from Democrats—he gets 88% support from his own party, while she gets 90%—and that Trump is leading by 14 points among independent voters.

Murray opined that Trump has “had a little more success solidifying his base in Nevada than Clinton has.”

Actually, as the Monmouth publication points out, Trump’s support from Republicans was the same in July, but Clinton has slipped two points, from 92% to 90%. The big movement was in independents, who abandoned Clinton in droves. The split among indies was 39% Trump, 37% Clinton, 10% Johnson two months ago, but now it’s 43% Trump, 29% Clinton, 17% Johnson.

Monmouth reports:

Interestingly, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the horse race even while his favorable ratings have declined. Only 30% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Trump while 55% hold an unfavorable view of him, which is down from 35% favorable and 53% unfavorable in July.  Opinion of Clinton, on the other hand, has held steady.  She currently gets a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, which is identical to her 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating from two months ago.

The poll also found Republican Joe Heck leading in the race to succeed Democrat Minority Leader Harry Reid, leading the Democratic candidate, former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, by 46% to 43%.

A growing lead among independent voters also seems to be pushing Heck into the lead, as he won 49% support from indies to Masto’s 33%, a three-point improvement for Heck from two months ago.