Poll: Donald Trump Leads in New Hampshire as Haley Breaks Away from Rest of Pack

trump haley
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump leads the way among the Republican primary field in New Hampshire, while former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) has emerged from the rest of the pack as his closest challenger, according to a poll. 

In the CBS News/ YouGov poll published Sunday, Trump took 44 percent of support among likely primary voters in New Hampshire when asked whom they would vote for if the primary were today. Haley sits 15 points back, in second place at 29 percent, with a comfortable lead over the rest of the field: 

Haley is up 18 percentage points since a September CBS News/YouGov poll, when she registered at 11 percent.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) follows in third place with eleven percent, while former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) is on his heels with ten percent backing. From there, five percent of respondents would vote for entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and one percent would vote for former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR). 

The poll also asked respondents whom they were considering voting for outside of merely who they would back if the election were today. Trump is the lone candidate to have a majority of respondents as considerers at 55 percent, while Haley has the second most at 45 percent. Just under one in three respondents are considering DeSantis, while roughly one in five are considering Christie. Seventeen percent contemplate supporting Ramaswamy:

Conversely, 37 percent are not thinking about backing Trump, and 33 percent are not considering Haley. Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, are not considering DeSantis as an option, while shares of 62 percent are not weighing Ramaswamy or Christie, respectively. 

Those considering Trump were asked why. Nearly all of them, 96 percent, said one reason is because “things were better under” him. The next top response, at 88 percent, was that “he represents New Hampshire values,” followed by the sentiment they “[k]now him better than other candidates” at 72 percent.

The poll also reveals that New Hampshire GOP primary voters think Trump has the best chance at defeating President Joe Biden in the general election race if Biden is the Democrat nominee. More than half of the poll participants, 51 percent, said Trump “[w]ould definitely beat Biden,” while another 33 percent think he “[m]ight beat Biden.” Only 16 percent perceive Trump as a “[l]ong shot” candidate. 

Faith in Haley is considerably weaker, with 32 percent saying she “[w]ould definitely beat Biden.” Another 47 percent think she has a chance at overcoming Biden, while 21 percent see her as a long shot. 

Regarding the other candidates, 27 percent think DeSantis “[w]ould definitely beat Biden,” while 15 percent feel the same about Ramaswamy and 12 percent feel the same about Christie. Conversely, 26 percent say DeSantis has a slim chance of winning the matchup, 49 percent say Ramaswamy is a long shot, and 56 percent say Christie is unlikely to win against the president. Hutchinson fared worst on this front, with 73 percent rating his odds as low versus Biden. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a New Hampshire Republican Party dinner, Friday, April 14, 2023, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

The poll sampled 459 likely Republican primary voters from December 8-15, and the margin of error for the entire sample of this demographic is ± 5.5 percentage points. It was one of two CBS News/YouGov polls released Sunday, the other showing Trump approaching 60 percent of support in Iowa.

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