Poll: 56 Percent of Voters Predict Donald Trump Will Win General Election if GOP Nominee

US President Donald Trump smiles during a phone conversation with Mexico's President
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

A majority of registered voters predict former President Donald Trump will win back the White House regardless of who he has as a Democrat opponent if he wins the Republican nomination, according to an Economist-YouGov poll. 

The poll, published on Tuesday, finds that 56 percent of registered voters think Trump will either likely or certainly win back the White House if he is the GOP nominee, with 30 percent of all registered voters predicting he “would definitely win.” 

Conversely, only 29 percent think Trump would lose to a Democrat in a hypothetical general election match-up, including 16 percent who think he “would probably lose” and 13 percent who think he definitely would lose. Another 15 percent are unsure of how he would fare. 

On the other hand, only 28 percent, to varying degrees, think former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) would beat any Democrat nominee, while a plurality of 45 percent predict she would lose. Similarly, a plurality of 43 percent think a Democrat would best Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) versus 36 percent who think it is likely he would win. 

Regarding anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, just 19 percent believe he would definitely or probably best a Democrat, while 54 percent think it is more likely he would lose. 

When voters were presented with the question of who they think would win in a match-up between Biden and Trump, a plurality of 44 percent predicted Trump, while 39 percent predicted Biden. In other words, voters think a race between Biden and Trump would be tighter than a contest between Trump and a generic Democrat. 

Interestingly, when voters were asked to choose who they would vote for in an election between Trump and Biden, the candidates tied at 43 percent. Another six percent would support someone else, five percent are undecided, and three percent would not participate in the election. 

Trump leads Biden among independents at 42 percent to 33 percent, while Biden has the advantage with both black voters, 73 percent to 15 percent, and Hispanics, 46 percent to 37 percent. 

The poll also gauged the temperature of the Republican primary at the national level, as the Iowa Caucuses are less than a week away. Trump dominates the field as he has for months, with 65 percent of support among Republicans and independents who lean to the right. Haley is 53 points behind Trump, in second place, barely eclipsing double digits with 12 percent. DeSantis is on her heels with ten percent, followed by Ramaswamy at five percent and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at one percent. 

The poll included samples from 1,417 registered voters, and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent. Interviews were conducted from January 7-9. The GOP primary portion included responses from 533 Republicans and independent leaners who are registered voters. A margin of error was not specified among this demographic.

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