National Polls: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Post-Conviction

winning Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Anna Moneymaker, Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden post-conviction, recent national surveys found.

A survey from the Economist/YouGov — taken well after the Manhattan jury’s guilty verdict — asked registered voters, “In November 2024, who do you plan to vote for in the presidential election?”

Overall, 42 percent said they would vote for Trump, and 40 percent said they would vote for Biden — a two-point difference. Notably, both Trump and Biden tied earlier in June with 42 percent support each. In other words, the Manhattan jury’s guilty verdict in the former president’s controversial business records trial has not negatively affected his support. In fact, Trump’s support has remained steady, and Biden’s has taken a slight dip.

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Jack Knudsen / Breitbart News

Another three percent said they would support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., followed by one percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and one percent for independent candidate Cornel West. Another nine percent are unsure, and two percent said they would not vote.

The survey also showed Trump with a double-digit edge among independent voters, garnering 37 percent support to Biden’s 26 percent support — a difference of 11 percentage points.

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Cygnal also released a national poll that told a similar story, showing Trump leading Biden by two points nationally — 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent head-to-head. When third-party candidates are included, Trump still leads Biden, this time by three points — 41 percent to Biden’s 38 percent support.

The national surveys coincide with other polls telling a similar story: The conviction is not hurting Trump.

In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, Trump leads Biden by two points — 47 percent to 45 percent — post-conviction. In other words, nothing has changed.


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