Voters Feel Better About the Economy. The Data Backs Them Up.

One year into the Trump administration, Americans are beginning to emerge from the economic funk that weighed on sentiment in the final stretch of the Biden years. A rising share of voters say the economy is on the right track, and more say their household finances are improving.

In September and October 2024—before the election—the share saying the economy was on the right track hovered around thirty to thirty-two percent, according to the Harvard CAPS–Harris Poll. In January 2026, that figure has climbed to thirty-eight percent.

Household finances show a clearer turn. In September 2024, the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found that twenty-eight percent said their personal financial situation was improving, and forty-eight percent said it was getting worse. In October 2024, twenty-six percent said improving. By January 2026, thirty-five percent say their finances are improving, while forty percent say they are getting worse.

The poll also finds voters endorsing a policy agenda that aligns more closely with Trump’s. When asked to choose between two broad economic-policy packages, sixty percent favored a platform described as reduced government spending, lower taxes, tougher trade deals, lower prescription drug costs, and a closed border, compared with forty percent who preferred a package described as higher government spending, liberal immigration policies, more taxes on the wealthy, and higher healthcare subsidies.

On stewardship, voters were essentially split, with a narrow edge for Trump and Republicans. Fifty-one percent said they trust Trump and Republicans more to manage the economy, compared with forty-nine percent who said they trust Democrats in Congress.

Voters also largely credit Trump with the state of the economy. Sixty-three percent said the current economy is mostly due to Trump administration policies, while thirty-seven percent said it is mostly due to Biden administration policies.

The survey includes one result that cuts against the improving pre-election comparison: fifty-three percent said the economy today is worse than it was under Biden, while forty-seven percent said it is better.

Partisan gaps in basic economic perceptions may help explain the contradiction. Among Democrats, eighty percent said the economy is shrinking, and Democrats’ median estimate of inflation was five percent. Those views diverge from the government’s headline data. The economy is not shrinking: real GDP grew at a 4.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 and 3.8 percent in the second quarter. Inflation has also been far lower than many Democrats believe. Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent over the twelve months ending December 2025—roughly half the five percent inflation rate Democrats reported as their median belief.

Taken together, the poll’s time series suggests that, compared with the pre-election months of late 2024, Americans are registering modest improvement in their view of the economy—and a more noticeable improvement in their own household finances—even as partisan perceptions remain sharply divided.