Economists Highly Pessimistic Over New Migrant Wave

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German economists are largely negative over the possibility of a second mass wave of migrants following the impending collapse of the European Union migrant deal with Turkey that could see millions more heading to Europe.

During the start of the migrant crisis some economists were broadly positive on the impacts that educated migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere might have on the German and other European economies.

Yet the looming emergence of a second wave of mass migration that seems likely to follow the impending collapse of the European Union (EU) migration deal with Turkey has turned their attitudes away from the potential economic impact of millions more migrants coming to Europe. Top managers across German business now fear continued mass migration, reports Die Welt.

Last year leaders in German businesses and economists were positive that the migrants from war torn Syria and elsewhere were largely a group of skilled professionals and academics that could plug the hole in the German economy, which is crying out for skilled labour. Some even touted the idea that the mostly young migrant men could help resolve a looming demographic crisis in Germany – which has one of the lowest birthrates in the world.

A new survey conducted by Die Welt and German consulting company Roland Berger has shown that many of the top managers in large German corporations are fearful of the collapse of the EU-Turkey migrant deal and the potential of a repeat of the first wave of the migrant crisis. Seventy-five per cent of those surveyed said that the first wave of migrants had economically overwhelmed Germany and that the majority of migrants will add nothing to the labour force in the short and medium term.

Axel Plünnecke of the Institute of the German Economy (IW) said: “The difficulties with the asylum seekers of the first influx are obvious,” adding that while some migrants have been able to secure training or jobs the vast majority will need to be well integrated before they can even think about joining the labour force. Breitbart London has previously reported that of the major publicly traded German companies only employed 54 migrants, despite having work forces of millions.

According to Mr. Plünnecke, the process of integrating a migrant into the German labour force could take upwards of five years or more. If there is another massive wave of migrants coming from Turkey and elsewhere, due to the collapse of the migrant deal, the resources needed to integrate the migrants become even fewer. The opinion of Mr. Plünnecke coincides with another study that shows mass migration is harmful to the economy even in the long term.

Though more and more economists are abandoning the idea that uncontrolled mass migration is beneficial, some politicians are still optimistic that migrants will solve Germany’s problems. Head of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), Frank-Jürgen Weise, still  maintains that the only way to fill the skills shortage in Germany is to accept more migrants.


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