Ukraine Has ‘Highly Likely’ Retaken Territory Occupied by Russia Since 2014 For First Time: UK Intel

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - JUNE 21: Ukrainian soldiers from the 35th Brigade fire targets u
Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Oliver JJ Lane

Ukrainian forces are now pushing over the defacto border established in the 2014 Russian invasion, taking back long-occupied territory in the Donbas region for the first time, the United Kingdom says.

There have been “small advances” — which is on trend for the progress of the counter-offensive so far, per reports — around Krasnohorivka near Donetsk city, an area that has been occupied by Russian and pro-Kremlin forces for nearly a decade.

While the international community never stopped recognising Ukraine’s legal borders, a de-facto “Line of Control” emerged after the 2014 Donbas war.

Now, it is “highly likely” that Ukrainian territory held since 2014 is being taken back by Kyiv for the first time as the counter-offensive pushes east, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence.

Ukraine, for its part, claims that they have been under regular artillery attacks in the region from Russian forces in recent days.

The “small advances” cited by the MoD are in line with the Ukrainian experience of the counter-offensive so far, which according to some sources is going slowly as their newly trained and equipped armed forces engage in probing sorties first, preparing for a later, larger main offensive.

Yet, despite the claims the slow walk is by design, Ukrainian President Zelensky himself has conceded things are not going as quickly as hoped.

Nevertheless, Zelensky criticised those abroad saying things should speed up, declaring that Ukraine would not be pressured into trying to run faster than it believed is optimal for itself. He blamed preconceptions among some in the West that wars can be fought quickly on Hollywood films, which he said have skewed perspectives.

Underlining the current lack of speedy progress, Ukraine revealed on Monday through an official statement that in the southern area of operations — the push towards Crimea — they had only retaken 50 square miles of territory in the three weeks of the counter-offensive, an area smaller than the size of Staten Island.

The cautious approach of slow, probing attacks has not come without cost. There were some high-profile losses of heavy western armour — German-made Leopard II Main Battle Tanks — in the early days. While such losses of frontline tanks do not appear to have been repeated since there has been appreciable attrition of lighter armour, including the U.S.-made Bradley Armoured Fighting Vehicle.

Per a report in the New York Times, Ukraine has already lost some 15 per cent of the Bradleys donated to it by the U.S. in the past three weeks in this exploratory, probing stage. This may be a reflection of the important role played by light, fast armour in reconnaissance missions.

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