Conservative governance in Poland may be coming to an end, with exit polls from the parliamentary elections held on Sunday suggesting that the governing Law and Justice party is unlikely to have garnered enough support for a majority or even a coalition government.
Despite securing the most votes of any party at 36.8 per cent, according to exit polls, the Law and Justice (PiS) party which has governed Poland since 2015 does not appear to have secured enough support to form another government. Should the exit polls be representative of the final tally — which may not be fully counted for two or three days — the PiS would only have 200 seats in the Sejm parliamentary house in Warsaw. Even when combined with the seats of the populist Confederation party, which is predicted to have secured 12 seats, a potential right-wing coalition would still fall short of the 230 seats needed to form a government.
This would leave room for the Citizens’ Coalition of former Prime Minister and longtime Eurocrat Donald Tusk, which came in second at 31.6 per cent, to potentially form a coalition with the other left-wing parties; the Third Road (13 per cent), the Left (8.6 per cent), which in total would have 248 seats.
“We will create a new, good, democratic government with our partners in the near future. Poland won, you won,” Tusk said per Gazeta Wyborcza.
Donald Tusk, former president of the European Union (EU) and leader of the Civic Coalition, speaks during an election night rally at the party headquarters in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023. Photographer: Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
However, the conservative PiS has yet to concede defeat on the basis of the exit polls, with deputy prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński telling supporters on Sunday evening: “This is our fourth victory in parliamentary elections and the third in turn. This is a great success of our formation and our project for Poland. The question remains whether this success can be changed into the next term of our power. And this at the moment and we do not know.
“But we must hope and know that regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition, we will implement this project in different ways. And we will not allow Poland to be betrayed! That Poland would lose what is most precious to our nation, namely independence.”
The election in Poland could have significant consequences throughout Europe, on issues ranging from the migrant crisis to the war in Ukraine.
The conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), which has been in power in Poland since 2015, has become a thorn in the side of globalist forces in Brussels for merely maintaining that the country has the right to set its own agenda and to protect its borders, for which the EU has sought to impose financial penalties on Warsaw.
Most recently, Poland and Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary, have come to loggerheads with Brussels over the EU’s latest migration pact, which mandates that all countries in the bloc enter into an illegal migrant redistribution scheme in order to lessen the impact on hotspot countries like Greece and Italy. Those who refuse to take illegals into their country will face fines of up to €20,000 per each illegal they turn away. Budapest and Warsaw have argued that they, unlike other European nations, have implemented strict border controls and therefore should not be punished for the failings of their neighbours.
The Law and Justice party made the battle with the EU over immigration a central pillar of their election campaign, going so far as to put the question before the public in a referendum, which left-wing opposition parties claimed was merely a tactic to increase voter turnout. The voters were asked: “Do we support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, in accordance with the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”
Poland, IPSOS exit poll:
PiS-ECR: 37% (-7)
KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 32% (+5)
TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 13% (new)
NL-S&D: 9% (-4)
Kon~NI: 6% (-1)
BS-*: 2% (+1)+/- vs. 2019 election
Fieldwork: 15 October 2023
➤ https://t.co/WMMN58m6v6 #Polska #Wybory2023 pic.twitter.com/9Q9wjwZ7xc— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) October 15, 2023
Alongside the question of immigration, the Polish voters were given the opportunity to directly vote on whether or not to raise the retirement age, whether to keep the border wall with Belarus installed by the PiS government, and whether to sell off state-run businesses. For a referendum to become legally binding in Poland, at least 50 per cent of voters had to have participated, therefore some opposition parties have called for their voters to boycott the referenda altogether. The results of the referendum questions have yet to be made public at the time of this reporting.
The conservative PiS government has also sought to make the election about national sovereignty versus ceding control to the EU, painting Donald Tusk, a former European Council president, as a servant of Brussels and Berlin.
Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński previously said that Tusk is “the personification of evil in Poland”. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, echoed the sentiment, saying: “Tusk is the biggest threat to our security. It is the biggest threat to Poland’s security. Let’s not let Tusk, as an envoy of the Brussels elite, demolish security in Poland.”
Should Tusk return to power, it would likely see Warsaw adopt a more pro-Brussels approach, particularly on issues such as migration, LGBT rights, and abortion. It would also mean that the conservative coalition between Poland and Hungary would likely come to an end.
“I know our dreams were even more ambitious. I have been a politician for many years. I am an athlete. I’ve never been so happy in my life. Poland won, democracy won. We removed them from power,” Tusk said.
Polish Leader: Donald Tusk Plotting to Bring County 'Under the German Heel' via EU https://t.co/3BXv9RJFY0
— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 9, 2022
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