Frank Luntz: Trump Could Win Michigan — Working-Class Turnout ‘Much Higher than Expected’

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rall
AP Photo/ Evan Vucci

Pollster Frank Luntz announced early Tuesday afternoon that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump may have a realistic chance of winning the state of Michigan in today’s presidential election.

“Working-class turnout is looking much higher than expected,” Luntz tweeted.

This statement contradicts Luntz’s prediction just yesterday that Trump could win the battleground states of

A Republican candidate has not won Michigan’s electoral votes since 1988, when George H.W. Bush took the White House while riding on the popularity of outgoing president Ronald Reagan.

Hillary Clinton has maintained an edge in Michigan polling heading into Election Day, with the RealClearPolitics polling average putting her 3.4 percentage points above Trump — within most polls’ margins of error. An election-eve survey published by the Trafalgar Group showed Trump up two points.

Michigan native Michael Moore warned his progressive followers last week that polls showing Clinton ahead were not a guarantee that she would win the state — as Sen. Bernie Sanders pulled off an upset victory during the Democratic primary despite trailing her by large margins.

Trump has campaigned aggressively in the Midwestern state, holding his final campaign rally with running mate Mike Pence in Grand Rapids. And Democratic rival Hillary Clinton appears nervous about her performance in the state, spending six figures on ads there and making several campaign stops — including an appearance by President Barack Obama.

Trump has made an appeal to working-class voters with a promise to revitalize U.S. manufacturing through better trade deals, attacking Clinton over the legacy of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and her early support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

In an ironic moment, Moore — famous for his film Roger & Me about the closing of a General Motors plant in Flint, MI — inadvertently created a viral ad explaining the reason many working-class voters are supporting Trump. An excerpt of his film TrumpLand, where he discusses Trump’s anti-establishment appeal, received millions of views as Trump supporters set it to dramatic music and images.


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