Seasons’ GREATNESS: New York Fed Nowcast Hits 4.0% GDP Growth

Trump, Season's Greatness
Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

The Trump economic boom is picking up steam as American heads into the final weeks of the president’s first year in office.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Nowcast, which attempts to estimate economic output based on the latest releases of data, now says GDP appears to be growing at a 4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That is the highest level on record for the Nowcast, which was launched just two years ago.

The Nowcast was revised up primarily due to positive impacts of revisions of earlier data, the New York Fed’s website said Friday.

A similar tool from the Atlanta Fed was also revised up earlier this week to 3.3 percent. The Atlanta Fed measure has a track record of being considerably more pessimistic about growth than the New York Fed’s Nowcast.

If the Nowcast turns out to be on track, the fourth quarter will see the economy grow far more than most major forecasts had expected. A survey of economists completed at the end of the third quarter saw economic growth coming in at just 2.5 percent.


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