Quinnipiac Poll Shows Harris Back on Top in California, Warren Dropping to Fourth

Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) speaks during the AARP and The Des Moines Register Iowa Presidential Candidate Forum on July 16, 2019 in Bettendorf, Iowa. Twenty democratic presidential candidates are participating in the AARP and Des Moines Register candidate forums that will feature four candidates per forum …
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A Quinnipiac University Poll focusing on Democrat voters in California shows Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) regaining a narrow lead in her state, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) – who overshadowed Harris in Capitol Weekly’s recent tracking survey – dropping to fourth place.

The poll, released Wednesday, surveyed 519 Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters July 10 – 15 and asked:

If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

Harris came out on top with 23 percent support. Joe Biden (D), who has largely remained the frontrunner in general election polling, came in closely behind with 21 percent support. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in third with 18 percent support, and Warren arrived in fourth place with 16 percent support overall. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in fifth place with 3 percent support, and Andrew Yang (D) followed up with 2 percent. The remaining candidates garnered 1 percent support or less.

However, with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points, Harris is statistically tied with Biden and Sanders.

Additionally:

  • 26 percent that Biden would be the best leader, with 18 percent for Harris, 17 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Warren
  • 28 percent that Warren has the best policy ideas, with 20 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Biden and 9 percent for Harris
  • 45 percent that Biden has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, with 12 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Harris and 8 percent for Warren.

While Harris remains the top candidate in this poll, she holds a narrow lead. Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said California Democrats believe that Biden – not Harris – is the best candidate to take on President Trump, “hands down.”

Quinnipiac’s results differ greatly from Capitol Weekly’s recent tracking survey, which showed Warren leading in the Golden State with 24.8 percent support. She is followed by Harris, Biden, and Sanders with 20.3 percent, 19.6 percent, and 15.6 percent, respectively.

The current Real Clear Politics poll for California’s Democrat primary shows Biden leading with 21.5 percent support. He’s followed by Harris with 18 percent, Sanders with 17.5 percent, and Warren with 17 percent.

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