Poll: Elizabeth Warren Leads in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders Behind by Double Digits

Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks at the Polk County
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is surging in New Hampshire, overtaking her closest competitors – Joe Biden (D) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) – in the Granite State, according to a Monmouth Poll released Tuesday.

Monmouth University surveyed 401 registered Democrats September 17-21. The poll found Warren in the lead with 27 percent support, followed by Biden, who trails by two points with 25 percent support. Sanders – who has revamped his efforts in New Hampshire in recent weeks following rumblings of a Warren surge – fell to a distant third, behind by double digits with just 12 percent support.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in fourth place with ten percent support, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) with just three percent support. A cluster of 2020 candidates garnered two percent of the vote, including  Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Tom Steyer (D), and Andrew Yang (D). The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent:

The results reveal a massive spike in support for Warren, as Monmouth’s last poll – taken in May – showed Biden leading the pack with 36 percent support, followed by Sanders with 18 percent support, and Warren with just eight percent support.

“Warren continues to look stronger with every new poll. She seems to be picking up support across the spectrum with gains coming at the expense of both Biden and Sanders,”  Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said, according to Monmouth.

The poll also found that most Democrat voters in New Hampshire (61 percent) view electability as the most important factor when choosing a candidate. According to the poll:

Most New Hampshire Democratic primary voters (61%) say if they had to choose they would select a candidate who they don’t agree with on most issues but would be stronger against President Donald Trump in the general election. On the other hand, 27% say if they had to choose they would support a candidate they agree with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump.  These results are in line with Monmouth’s prior poll (68% stronger candidate versus 25% candidate agree with on issues).

“I’ve traveled throughout New Hampshire and Iowa talking to voters who say they prioritize electability. I started to suspect they weren’t defining that term the same as pundits and decided to ask some follow-up questions. These results suggest that many voters believe they have found a candidate who is the holy grail of issue alignment and electability, so they aren’t forced to make a calculated decision between the two factors,” said Murray.

The results tell a drastically different story than a Gravis Marketing poll released last month, which showed Sanders firmly at the top of the pack with 21 percent support, followed by Biden with 15 percent, and Warren with 12 percent.

A CBS/YouGov Tracker released this month, however, served as a warning signal to the Sanders campaign, previewing what appeared to be the beginning of a Warren surge in his neighboring state.

As Breitbart News reported, Sanders shook up his staffers in New Hampshire, moving presidential campaign operations state director Joe Caiazzo to Massachusetts and replacing him with former Sanders adviser Shannon Jackson.

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