Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is leading in New Hampshire, slightly edging out Joe Biden (D) and leading Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by double digits in the coveted early primary state, according to the Saint Anselm College Survey Center’s September poll released Tuesday.
The poll – which surveyed 423 registered New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Democrat primary from September 25-29, 2019 – showed Warren leading the primary field with 25 percent support and Biden on her heels with 24 percent support. Sanders, however, struggled to keep up, falling to a distant third place with just 11 percent support.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in fourth place, just one point behind the socialist senator, with ten percent support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) tumbled to fifth place, failing to garner double digits in the Granite State, seeing just five percent support.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MI) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) saw three percent support, followed by Andrew Yang (D) and Tom Steyer (D), who garnered two percent support each. The remaining candidates saw one percent support or less. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percent:
New Hampshire @SaintAnselmPoll (9/25-29):
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 2, 2019
Change since July:
Yang -3 https://t.co/hEBkWCzAV2
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2019
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque highlighted the sense of “fluidity” in the race, due to the fact that “65% of Warren supporters, 72% of Biden supporters, 56% of Sanders supporters, and 73% of Buttigieg voters indicate that they expect that their choice could change between now and the primary election.”
Among voters who are not firm in their choice, Warren is the 2nd choice of 26%, well ahead of Biden with 12%, Buttigieg with 11%, Sanders with 7% and Harris with 7%. This suggests that when the field begins to winnow down, Warren may in the best position to pick up other candidates’ support. However, if this turns into a two-person race, the nomination may ultimately turn on what sort of candidate Democrats want to send against Donald Trump: one that they believe would make the best president, or one that they believe has the best chance of beating him. If the former, Warren has a clear 27% to 19% advantage over Biden on the question of whom respondents think would make the best President. However, Biden is seen as the strongest nominee against Trump by 37% of voters compared to Warren with 26%. As in our April poll, Warren leads Biden among ‘extremely interested’ and ‘very liberal’ voters, at 28% – 24% and 35% – 11% respectively.
The poll spells trouble for Sanders, who has been slipping in New Hampshire, as recent polls indicate.
A Monmouth Poll released last Tuesday showed a similar trend, with Warren edging out Biden (27 percent to 25 percent) and leading Sanders – who garnered 12 percent support – by double digits:
#NEW New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Monmouth (DNC Approved) Pollhttps://t.co/DfXVhjOxPG
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2019
Reports emerged of a staffer shakeup for the Sanders campaign last month. The Sanders campaign moved presidential campaign operations state director Joe Caiazzo from New Hampshire to Massachusetts and replaced him with Shannon Jackson, who served as a senior adviser during Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid and ran his Senate reelection campaign.
While the Sanders campaign continues to reconfigure and strategize on how to win over New Hampshire as it did in 2016, the campaign reported a monstrous $25.3 million received in the third quarter, signaling that his campaign is in it for the long haul.