A rapid “demographic shift” is helping to replace President Donald Trump’s base of white working-class voters with Democrat supporters, the Wall Street Journal reports.
A report by the Wall Street Journal details how a “demographic shift” — with the help of more than 1.2 million legal immigrants being admitted to the United States every year — is changing the American electorate in favor of Democrats.
Trump’s white working-class base of support, the Journal notes, is expected to decline in population by about 2.3 percent in time for the 2020 presidential election. Still, about 23 million white non-college educated men did not vote in the 2016 presidential election — a pool of untapped support that the Trump campaign could draw on.
States of Change demographer Ruy Teixeira told the Journal that “demographic change” is making states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina increasingly difficult for Republicans to win:
Projections by Mr. Teixeira and his colleagues find that the declining presence of working-class whites as eligible voters, if considered in isolation from other factors, would be enough to tip Michigan and Pennsylvania from narrow Trump wins into narrow Democratic wins, while producing the barest of margins in favor of Democrats in Wisconsin. Mr. Trump won each state by less than 1 percentage point, or a combined 77,000 votes. [Emphasis added]
Projected changes in the eligible electorate, holding other factors the same as in the last election, also narrow Mr. Trump’s winning 2016 margin in three swing states in the Sunbelt analyzed by States of Change: Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. [Emphasis added]
If he were to rely on working-class, white voters to make up the ground he loses to demographic change, Mr. Trump would need to raise turnout among that group by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania and Michigan and one point in Wisconsin, a Wall Street Journal analysis of the States of Change projections finds. [Emphasis added]
For years, the establishment media has admitted that the nation’s changing electorate — almost entirely due to mass legal immigration — is dooming the Republican Party in elections across Orange County, California, and now, Virginia.
Under current legal immigration levels, the U.S. is on track to import about 15 million new foreign-born voters in the next two decades. Those 15 million new foreign-born voters include about eight million who will arrive in the country through chain migration, whereby newly naturalized citizens can bring an unlimited number of foreign relatives to the country.
Evergreen: Chain migration, alone, is set to bring between 7-8 million new foreign-born voters to the U.S. in the next two decades. https://t.co/HtYIOgyBkW
— John Binder 👽 (@JxhnBinder) October 31, 2019
In the upcoming 2020 election, about 1-in-10 U.S. voters will have been born outside the country. Likewise, Hispanic Americans are set to outpace black Americans as the largest voting minority group in this year’s election.
Ronald Brownstein, senior editor for The Atlantic, notes that nearly 90 percent of House congressional districts with a foreign-born population above the national average were won by Democrats. This means that every congressional district with a foreign-born population exceeding roughly 14 percent had a 90 percent chance of being controlled by Democrats and only a ten percent chance of electing a Republican.
The New York Times and Axios admit that legal immigration at its current rate will continue shifting the American electorate more towards Democrat control, as realized in the 2016 presidential election between then-candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Among native-born Americans, Trump won 49 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent, according to exit polling data. Among foreign-born residents, Clinton dominated Trump, garnering 64 percent of the immigrant population’s vote compared to Trump’s mere 31 percent.
University of Maryland, College Park, researcher James Gimpel has found in recent years that more immigrants to the U.S. inevitably means more Democrat voters, and thus, increasing electoral victories for the Democrat Party.
John Binder is a reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter at @JxhnBinder.