Poll: Joe Biden’s Lead in Minnesota Slips to Six Points

TOPSHOT - (COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 22, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump and Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. (Photos by various sources / AFP) (Photo …
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI,JIM WATSON,MORRY GASH/POOL/AFP via Getty

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in Minnesota has slipped to six points, according to a poll released by KSTP/SurveyUSA on Thursday.

The former vice president leads Trump 48 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll of 625 likely voters, which was conducted between October 16 and 20 and has a margin of error of five points.

KSTP reported:

Although Biden retains a lead in Minnesota, it has slipped just a bit since early September. On Sept. 9 his lead was 49% to 40% and on Oct. 10 his lead was 47% to 40%.

“The trend is important,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier. “Trump has been improving.” . . .

“Four years ago Clinton was ahead by 10 points and ended up winning by 1.5%,” Schier says. “Biden is up by 6 points and I think Democrats have to be worried about that.”

In 2016, President Trump narrowly lost the state’s ten Electoral College votes by 44,000 votes to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.

The same poll found that in the U.S. Senate race, GOP challenger Jason Lewis faring slightly better against his Democratic opponent, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) than Trump is doing against Biden.

Lewis trails Smith by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

A breakdown by age group shows Biden holds a 19 point advantage over Trump among voters age 65 and older, 55 percent to 36 percent, which accounts for  Biden’s overall lead.

Lewis performs better against his Democratic opponent among voters age 18 to 34 than Trump does against Biden.

Thirty-nine percent of younger voters support Sen. Smith while 33 percent support Lewis. A whopping 22 percent are undecided.

It is a very different story among younger voters in the choice between Trump and Biden.

Fifty-three percent of voters age 18 to 34 support Joe Biden, while 36 percent support Trump. Only five percent of younger voters are undecided in the presidential race.

When asked “Who would be better for the economy?” 48 percent of poll respondents said Trump, while 40 percent said Biden.

When asked “Who would keep you safer?” 47 percent of poll respondents said Biden, while 43 percent said Trump.

“Any movement toward Trump in Minnesota over the past 6 weeks has to be immediately qualified with the words: may or may not be statistically significant,” analysts from Survey USA said in a statement released along with the poll:

But what we can say with some confidence is: there no MN mo-Joe. 6 weeks ago, SurveyUSA had Biden 9 points atop Trump, 49% to 40%. 2 weeks ago, Biden’s support softened, Trump’s stayed flat, so Trump was able to draw within 7 points, 47% to 40%. SurveyUSA observed at that time that the movement may or may not have meaning. Now, the newest data point, from today: Biden 48%, Trump 42%. Trump is within 6 of Biden, which in fairness may be a sign of the contest tightening-ever-so-slightly here, but may not. The poll-on-poll movement is just too small to say anything with confidence, except that the Democrats do not have either of Minnesota’s Top-Ticket races sewn up.

In suburban MN today, Trump leads by 6 points, just as he does statewide. But what is significant is that 6 weeks ago, Biden led in the suburbs by 17 points.

Among lower-income Minnesotans, Trump poll-on-poll is up 7 points while Biden is down 5 points, a 12-point GOP tightening.

With 11 days until the election, Minnesota has now joined the ranks of key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona. The outcome in any one of these battleground states could determine whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election.

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