Analysts Shift Multiple House Predictions in Favor of Republicans

UNITED STATES - MAY 14: From left, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., newly e
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Analysts from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, who predict the probable outcomes of U.S. House of Representatives races, released three new predictions on Wednesday, moving all of them in favor of Republican candidates.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted their House predictions in favor of the Republicans in three congressional districts. The districts the Center for Politics reassessed were:

  • Alaska’s Special Election to fill the state’s at-large congressional seat, vacant by the passing of Rep. Don Young (R), went from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican.”
  • Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in California’s 45th Congressional District went from “Toss-up” to “Leans Republican.”
  • Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District went from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”

The biggest surprise from the latest rating changes might be Wexton’s congressional district.

Breitbart News previously reported that Wexton was one of Virginia’s three main vulnerable Democrats, along with Democrat Reps. Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger. The Democrat incumbents had been raising great sums of money even before their Republican opponents were officially decided in the primaries.

Additionally, Wexton was a top target for Republicans, hoping to ride the wave created by newly minted Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) — the first Republican elected statewide since 2009. Only three months ago, the Center for Politics shifted her formerly “Safe Democrat” seat to “Likely Democrat.”

Youngkin’s election could significantly impact these races, rallying Republicans to vote. He lost the newly drawn Tenth Congressional District by a razor-thin margin of 1.6 points, leading Republicans to believe Wexton is vulnerable, partly because her district includes the political hotbed of Loudoun County.

“Our prospects for reclaiming the Tenth Congressional District and Virginia from Jennifer Wexton and the Democrats are very good,” the district’s Republican Party chairman Geary Higgins told Breitbart News in April.

“The issues that won for us last fall, such as opening our schools, parental rights, public safety, lockdowns and the economy, are still very relevant and the Democrats have not backed away from them and if anything are doubling down,” he continued. “Add to that recent issues such as hyperinflation, a failed energy policy with doubled gasoline prices, a disastrous foreign policy and I believe you have the makings of big changes in Virginia and nationally.”

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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