Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by three points, two points lower than the previous week and seven points lower than the week before that, a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday showed.
While the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections — which are only 95 days away — after being in the minority for roughly four years, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 46 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 43 percent who said they would vote for a Democrat.
Thus the Republicans only have a three-point lead, which is two points less than than last week and seven points less than two weeks ago, when they were up by ten points. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate, and the other nine percent said they were unsure.
The Republicans’ three-point lead shows that the party has lost what was a growing momentum in the polls. However, while there are fewer than four months left until the election, there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before November. But the Republicans have so far led the generic ballot all year.
Rasmussen has noted that in August 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they had a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. But, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans became extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent, to 45 percent for Democrats.
In this poll, the Republican Party has a slight advantage with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 36 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Additionally, 22 percent of black voters and 43 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today; 64 percent of black voters and 40 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Democrat. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost one percent of black voters.
Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 87 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 82 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.
The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from July 31 to August 4 and questioned 2,500 likely United States voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.