Exclusive — Poll Shows Blake Masters Has Closed Gap with Democrat Mark Kelly in Arizona

MESA, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 09: Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Blake Masters gestures to
Mario Tama/Getty Images, Leigh Vogel-Pool/Getty Images

Recent polling exclusively obtained by Breitbart News shows that Republican Blake Masters, looking to unseat Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, has gained momentum in the Grand Canyon State and is now within striking distance of the incumbent.

The polling conducted by OnMessage Inc., on behalf of Sentinel Action Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Heritage Action, the political arm of the prominent conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, showed Masters has been gaining momentum and is within the margin of error of Kelly after a spending blitz to the help the Republicans.

The group’s first poll was conducted from September 6 to 11, with 400 likely voters in Arizona with a 4.9 percent margin of error. At the time, the poll showed that Kelly was at 50 percent while Masters was at 40 percent. Additionally, the poll at the time found that Marc Victor, the Libertarian candidate, was at six percent, and five percent were undecided.

Now, the most recent poll showed that Masters has the momentum going for him. The polling was done from October 8 to 10, with 600 likely voters and a tighter four percent margin of error. It showed that the race has tightened as Kelly is now below 50 percent, at 46 percent, with Masters at 43 percent. Victor was also at four percent, while seven percent was still undecided.

Ultimately, in just one month, with less than a month left before the election, Kelly went from plus ten on the September poll to Kelly being only plus three on the October poll.

OnMessage also found that the Republicans lead the Democrats by five points on the generic ballot, 46 percent to 41 percent. Independents on the generic ballot have a noticeable preference for Republicans as well, 41 percent to 34 percent, in addition to the Hispanic voters also strongly favoring Republicans, 51 percent, 35 percent.

“The political environment in Arizona definitely favors Masters. A sizable majority of AZ voters want to vote Republican, but this isn’t a layup. We still have to wage a rigorous campaign,” OnMessage pollster Wes Anderson told Breitbart News. “If Republican groups come to Masters’ aid, he is very likely to be the next senator from the state of Arizona. If not, we could see a heartbreakingly close loss on election night.”

Over the last month, Sentinel Action Fund has spent $6.5 million on television ads in the Grand Canyon State, focusing on Kelly’s record of support for extreme, leftist policies. Of course, this follows the spending cuts in the state by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

SLF reportedly cut nearly $10 million it had reserved for television ads in Arizona, which ultimately cast doubt on the race being a Republican pick-up. However, at the same time, SLF backed pro-impeachment Republican incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) reelection bid against her challenger, Donald Trump-backed Republican Kelly Tshibaka, with millions of dollars.

“Every day, Blake Masters is successfully exposing Senator Kelly’s extreme positions on the border, crime, and inflation. The debate showed voters that Sen Kelly is not afraid to lie about his lack of action on the border,” President of the Sentinel Action Fund Jessica Anderson told Breitbart News.

“Blake Masters has the momentum to finish this race and to win. Our polling confirms what we hear from the ground — that the gap is closing, and Arizonans want a change. We are proud to be in this fight with Blake and look forward to celebrating his win as a Senator soon,” the Sentinel Action Fund president added.

In fact, Thursday morning, Billionaire businessman and Republican donor Peter Thiel, who has dumbed roughly $15 million into the race to help Masters, reportedly gave McConnell and SLF an opportunity to match his campaign contributions in Arizona to help oust Kelly.

Arizona’s U.S. Senate race is critical for Republican chances to retake the U.S. Senate majority in the 2022 midterm elections. The Senate is currently divided 50-50 between the parties, with Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. If the GOP could net at least one seat — with Arizona potentially being one of them — it would put the Republicans back in the majority and hinder President Joe Biden’s agenda.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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