Polls: Kari Lake Leads Democrat Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor’s Race

A pair of polls released Monday show Republican Kari Lake leading Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in Arizona’s gubernatorial race.

Lake draws the support of 50 percent of likely voter respondents, while 47 percent back Hobbs in the Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates poll sponsored by the conservative group Club for Growth Action. From October 24 through October 26, Fabrizio Lee & Associates sampled 800 likely general election voters. The poll, first published by NBC News, has a plus or minus 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Arizona Governor:
Lake (R) 50% (+3)
Hobbs (D) 47%
.
Arizona Senate:
Kelly (D-inc) 47% (+1)
Masters (R) 46%
Victor (L) 3%
.
Head-2-Head:
Kelly (D-inc) 49%
Masters (R) 49%

.@Fabrizio_Lee/@club4growth (R), 800 LV, 10/24-26https://t.co/rZ58aaR2Yi

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 31, 2022

Another poll released by OH Predictive Insights has Lake leading Hobbs 49 percent to 47 percent with likely voters. That poll sampled 600 likely voters between October 24-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs at an event hosted by Arizona Talks at Greenwood Brewing in Phoenix, Arizona, on March 22, 2022. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

Lake, a former Fox 10 Phoenix anchor who is endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, leads Hobbs in eight of the last nine Arizona governor’s race polls published to FiveThirtyEight, with samples dating back to October 11. The lone poll that showed Hobbs ahead gave her just a one-point advantage.

The Republican’s best numbers in the stretch came in an InsiderAdvantage poll which was sponsored by Fox 10 Phoenix and published on October 26. It showed her with an eleven-point lead over Hobbs, at 54 percent to 43 percent. FiveThirtyEight’s average gives Lake a 2.7 percent advantage in the race.

Hobbs has taken heat from both Republicans and Democrats for refusing to debate Lake. The weeks-long drama that started in August coincided with Lake’s rise in the polls.

In his op-ed titled “Arizona Democrats chose the wrong candidate for governor” from last week, the Arizona Republic’s Phil Boas ripped Hobbs for refusing to debate:

Her refusal to engage in one feeds doubts both left and right that she has the mettle to compete. Hobbs seems to fear Kari Lake and her polished anchorwoman poise and delivery.

Had the Democrats run the right candidate for governor, this wouldn’t be an issue.

Former President Barack Obama will attend a rally with Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who is in a neck-and-neck U.S. Senate race with Republican challenger Blake Masters, in Phoenix on Wednesday as Democrats look to manufacture momentum in the home stretch. While Masters and Lake often campaign in tandem, this will be one of few events thus far that Hobbs and Kelly will be at together.