Arizona Poll: Republican Blake Masters Takes Razor-Thin Lead in Senate Race, Lake Ahead of Hobbs

Republican Blake Masters has taken a razor-thin lead over Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, while GOP candidate Kari Lake maintains her lead in the governor’s race, according to a poll.

Emerson College Polling released its latest and final Arizona survey on Friday. The poll shows that 48 percent of likely voters are voting for Masters while 47 percent back Kelly. Only one percent of voters are undecided. With the undecided leaners included, the race is a dead heat at 48 percent apiece.

ARIZONA POLL #AZSen @bgmasters 48%@CaptMarkKelly 47%
1% undecided

With undecided leaners:
Masters 48%
Kelly 48%https://t.co/Nxg037qEtj

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 4, 2022

Of respondents, 47 percent predict a Masters victory, while 52 percent project a second term for Kelly. The candidates have very similar favorability ratings, at 52 percent for Kelly and 50 percent for Masters, as well as identical unfavorability ratings at 46 percent a piece.

“Arizona independent voters break for Kelly over Masters, 50% to 42%. Independent men break for Kelly by five points, 51% to 46%, whereas independent women break for Kelly by nine points, 48% to 37%,” noted Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

In the gubernatorial race, Lake leads Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent, and another two percent are undecided. With undecided leaners taken into account, Lake’s support expands to 50 percent, while Hobbs stays at 47 percent. As Hobbs has refused to debate Lake under any circumstances, the polling outfit gauged how important a debate was to voters.

Of respondents, only 26 percent say it is “not too important” or “not at all important” that the gubernatorial candidates debate, while the majority of 57 percent say it is “very important,” and 17 percent say it is “somewhat important.”

The poll also found the economy is the top issue to 43 percent of respondents and that Trump leads Biden with Arizonans by a margin of 46 percent to 42 percent in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,000 likely voters from October 30-November 1, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.