Poll: Trump Leads in General Election Race as Biden’s Support Among Minorities Drops

trump leads
Brandon Bell/Getty Images, AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch as Biden is experiencing a loss of support among minority voters, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll found.

The overall survey showed Trump with a one-point edge over Biden in a head-to-head matchup, leading 41 percent to the 81-year-old’s 40 percent support.

Trump also holds an edge among independents, leading Biden by six points — 34 percent to Biden’s 28 percent. However, nearly a quarter, 23 percent, remain undecided.

The survey shows Biden with a significant advantage in urban areas — 55 percent to Trump’s 31 percent — and Trump leading Biden in the suburbs and rural areas — 44 percent to Biden’s 38 percent and 49 percent to Biden’s 27 percent, respectively.

But according to TIPP Insights, Biden has even more issues, as he is losing support among minority voters.

Per the survey:

An even larger problem looms for Biden when it comes to minority voters, in particular blacks and Hispanics. In 2020, according to a Roper Survey exit poll of voters, Biden took an estimated 87% of the black vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote running against Trump, who received an estimated 12% of the black vote and 32% of the Hispanic tally.

This time around might be a surprise for the Democrats, who have long held a tight lock on the votes of the country’s two-largest minorities. Current I&I/TIPP data show Trump getting a near-identical level of Hispanic support as in 2020, 31%, but Biden’s backing has plunged from more than 60% to just 53%.

Perhaps what is more is the fact that over one in five black voters are backing Trump over Biden — 23 percent. According to the survey, that figure is “more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election.”

The survey was taken January 3-5, 2024, among 1,247 registered voters. It has a +/- 2.8 percent margin of error.

This data coincides with December polling from GenForward, which showed Trump taking a greater share of the black vote — a key demographic for Democrats — than last time. That particular survey showed 17 percent of black Americans supporting Trump, as well as 36 percent of Latinos — the latter of which is up four points from 2020.

A recent USA Today-Suffolk University poll showed Trump pulling 12 percent of black voters and 39 percent of Latino voters, as well.


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